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This is true, but a bit of a dodge. Solar is competing with gas, so when you have a land parcel and want to maximize the energy you get from it, you need lots o

This is true, but a bit of a dodge. Solar is competing with gas, so when you have a land parcel and want to maximize the energy you get from it, you need lots of sunshine to beat out gas. This also factors heavily into where we use energy vs. where we produce it, and the associated losses. You can slot a GW of gas generation into ~350 acres anywhere. Solar you need ~5,000 acres with lots of sun. Combine this with the fact that the land where energy is used (population centers) is the land that is most expensive, and the difference becomes substantial. This also doesn't factor in energy storage costs, which is also necessary to reach parity with gas. Also, don't take this as me attacking solar, I am a huge proponent, but there is a reality check needed so people can understand why we aren't paving the earth with panels despite constant headlines of "Solar is the cheapest energy". It's the cheapest energy when in an ideal location, and overwhelming majority of people in the US don't live in an ideal location. This however doesn't really apply to non-gridscale generation. People can (and should) put panels on their roofs and batteries in their basement.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Gas generation manufacturing has a 7-10 year backlog [1] [2]. You can build ~1GW of solar in under a year [3] (1GW of solar is deployed every 15 hours globally, as of this comment, tangentially). As you can see with Intermountain in Utah, supplying power to Los Angeles (via Path 27), you can site batteries and renewables in the middle of nowhere and leverage existing transmission to get utility scale solar to load centers [4]. Again, there is lots of land everywhere, and it is straightforward to get solar generated to the load. It doesn't matter that solar takes more land than gas, nuclear, or other legacy generator technologies; its cost makes it a non issue. Also, solar, backed by battery storage, is cheaper than gas in most cases [5] [6] [7] [8]. No dodge, solar won, and it is going to steamroll fossil fuels globally as battery storage deployment comes up to speed [9] [10]. > To call solar power’s rise exponential is not hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar capacity doubles roughly every three years, and so grows ten-fold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on. When it was a tenth of its current size ten years ago, solar power was still seen as marginal even by experts who knew how fast it had grown. The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them. > Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the mid 2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source not just of electricity but of all energy. On current trends, the all-in cost of the electricity they produce promises to be less than half as expensive as the cheapest available today. This will not stop climate change, but could slow it a lot faster. Much of the world—including Africa, where 600m people still cannot light their homes—will begin to feel energy-rich. That feeling will be a new and transformational one for humankind. [1] Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-turbine-crunch-threatens-asian-lng-demand-bonanza https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-tu... | https://archive.today/z4Ixw https://archive.today/z4Ixw - October 7th, 2025 [2] AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch - https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turbines/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turb... | https://archive.today/b8bhn https://archive.today/b8bhn - October 1st, 2025 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45746627 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45746627 (Solar PV project timeline citations) [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45569054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45569054 (Path 27 transmission citations) [5] Solar, battery storage to lead new U.S. generating capacity additions in 2025 - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 - February 24th, 2025 [6] Solar+storage is so much farther along than you think - https://www.volts.wtf/p/solarstorage-is-so-much-farther-along https://www.volts.wtf/p/solarstorage-is-so-much-farther-alon... - July 16th, 2025 [7] In Solar vs. Gas Matchup, It Was Energy Storage That Killed The Beast - https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/02/in-solar-vs-gas-matchup-it-was-energy-storage-that-killed-the-beast/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/02/in-solar-vs-gas-matchup... - March 2nd, 2025 [8] Solar electricity every hour of every day is here and it changes everything - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... - June 21st, 2025 [9] The exponential growth of solar power will change the world - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 - June 2024 [10] Global battery industry grows 83% in last five years, boosting deployment to over 300 GW - https://www.ess-news.com/2025/10/28/global-battery-industry-grows-83-in-last-five-years-boosting-deployment-to-over-300-gw/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/10/28/global-battery-industry-... - October 28th, 2025
- Workaccount2 1y ago
  The fact that there is a back log of gas turbines when there is an excess of solar panels should make my point clear, and explain to people why there is a backlog when solar is so cheap and readily available...
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    I think you misunderstand. The backlog is not due to wild demand for gas turbines; it is due to structural supply chain and labor constraints around building gas turbines. The backlog means there is only so much gas turbine capacity that can get built; if there is any hiccup in the supply chain, it will further destroy the ability to deploy gas, forcing more rapid renewables and storage uptake. That gas manufacturing also has to compete against demand destruction as renewables and storage keep getting cheaper. So, when you say "well, they'll just build gas turbines instead," (in your comment I replied to) they cannot. There is no capacity, and no desire to increase capacity. They can barely build them already, and it would be pretty easy to make it harder to build them by finding points of fail to force to failure in their supply and labor chains. Smart money isn't going to invest in a technology that, from all indications, doesn't have longevity based on competing technologies. Existing gas turbine manufacturing is squeezing out the last of economic gains available before the industry shrinks further. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 > US financial markets are favoring renewable energy over fossil fuels, with global investment for new renewable energy development reaching a record $386 billion during the first half of 2025. > Revenue forecasts show a widening dichotomy between clean and dirty industries, with renewables expected to report 16% sales growth next year and 21% in 2027, while traditional energy companies report 1% and 6% sales growth. > Global renewable power is forecast to increase by 4,600 gigawatts by the end of the decade, an amount equivalent to adding the generation capacity of China, the EU and Japan. > Even as the US and European Union recently increased their reliance on coal, solar dethroned the fossil fuel mainstay last year, becoming the world’s most installed energy generation technology according to BloombergNEF’s 2025 Power Transition Trends report. “In 2015, solar power seemed far from overtaking coal, constrained both by scale and economics,” BloombergNEF said in report this month. Yet, within a decade, solar costs have fallen so dramatically that the dynamic has entirely reversed. Solar is now two times cheaper than the fossil fuel.” So-called green energy is the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy power generator in the US, even without incentives, according to Lazard Inc.
matthewdgreen 1y ago
We sort of are paving the earth with panels, depending on your definition of “we”. Globally we installed 380GW nameplate just in the first half of this year and will probably match that in the second half.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Gas generation manufacturing has a 7-10 year backlog [1] [2]. You can build ~1GW of solar in under a year [3] (1GW of solar is deployed every 15 hours globally, as of this comment, tangentially). As you can see with Intermountain in Utah, supplying power to Los Angeles (via Path 27), you can site batteries and renewables in the middle of nowhere and leverage existing transmission to get utility scale solar to load centers [4]. Again, there is lots of land everywhere, and it is straightforward to get solar generated to the load. It doesn't matter that solar takes more land than gas, nuclear, or other legacy generator technologies; its cost makes it a non issue. Also, solar, backed by battery storage, is cheaper than gas in most cases [5] [6] [7] [8]. No dodge, solar won, and it is going to steamroll fossil fuels globally as battery storage deployment comes up to speed [9] [10]. > To call solar power’s rise exponential is not hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar capacity doubles roughly every three years, and so grows ten-fold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on. When it was a tenth of its current size ten years ago, solar power was still seen as marginal even by experts who knew how fast it had grown. The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them. > Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the mid 2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source not just of electricity but of all energy. On current trends, the all-in cost of the electricity they produce promises to be less than half as expensive as the cheapest available today. This will not stop climate change, but could slow it a lot faster. Much of the world—including Africa, where 600m people still cannot light their homes—will begin to feel energy-rich. That feeling will be a new and transformational one for humankind. [1] Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-turbine-crunch-threatens-asian-lng-demand-bonanza https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-tu... | https://archive.today/z4Ixw https://archive.today/z4Ixw - October 7th, 2025 [2] AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch - https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turbines/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turb... | https://archive.today/b8bhn https://archive.today/b8bhn - October 1st, 2025 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45746627 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45746627 (Solar PV project timeline citations) [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45569054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45569054 (Path 27 transmission citations) [5] Solar, battery storage to lead new U.S. generating capacity additions in 2025 - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 - February 24th, 2025 [6] Solar+storage is so much farther along than you think - https://www.volts.wtf/p/solarstorage-is-so-much-farther-along https://www.volts.wtf/p/solarstorage-is-so-much-farther-alon... - July 16th, 2025 [7] In Solar vs. Gas Matchup, It Was Energy Storage That Killed The Beast - https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/02/in-solar-vs-gas-matchup-it-was-energy-storage-that-killed-the-beast/ https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/02/in-solar-vs-gas-matchup... - March 2nd, 2025 [8] Solar electricity every hour of every day is here and it changes everything - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-e... - June 21st, 2025 [9] The exponential growth of solar power will change the world - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 - June 2024 [10] Global battery industry grows 83% in last five years, boosting deployment to over 300 GW - https://www.ess-news.com/2025/10/28/global-battery-industry-grows-83-in-last-five-years-boosting-deployment-to-over-300-gw/ https://www.ess-news.com/2025/10/28/global-battery-industry-... - October 28th, 2025

Workaccount2 1y ago
The fact that there is a back log of gas turbines when there is an excess of solar panels should make my point clear, and explain to people why there is a backlog when solar is so cheap and readily available...
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  I think you misunderstand. The backlog is not due to wild demand for gas turbines; it is due to structural supply chain and labor constraints around building gas turbines. The backlog means there is only so much gas turbine capacity that can get built; if there is any hiccup in the supply chain, it will further destroy the ability to deploy gas, forcing more rapid renewables and storage uptake. That gas manufacturing also has to compete against demand destruction as renewables and storage keep getting cheaper. So, when you say "well, they'll just build gas turbines instead," (in your comment I replied to) they cannot. There is no capacity, and no desire to increase capacity. They can barely build them already, and it would be pretty easy to make it harder to build them by finding points of fail to force to failure in their supply and labor chains. Smart money isn't going to invest in a technology that, from all indications, doesn't have longevity based on competing technologies. Existing gas turbine manufacturing is squeezing out the last of economic gains available before the industry shrinks further. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 > US financial markets are favoring renewable energy over fossil fuels, with global investment for new renewable energy development reaching a record $386 billion during the first half of 2025. > Revenue forecasts show a widening dichotomy between clean and dirty industries, with renewables expected to report 16% sales growth next year and 21% in 2027, while traditional energy companies report 1% and 6% sales growth. > Global renewable power is forecast to increase by 4,600 gigawatts by the end of the decade, an amount equivalent to adding the generation capacity of China, the EU and Japan. > Even as the US and European Union recently increased their reliance on coal, solar dethroned the fossil fuel mainstay last year, becoming the world’s most installed energy generation technology according to BloombergNEF’s 2025 Power Transition Trends report. “In 2015, solar power seemed far from overtaking coal, constrained both by scale and economics,” BloombergNEF said in report this month. Yet, within a decade, solar costs have fallen so dramatically that the dynamic has entirely reversed. Solar is now two times cheaper than the fossil fuel.” So-called green energy is the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy power generator in the US, even without incentives, according to Lazard Inc.

matthewdgreen 1y ago

We sort of are paving the earth with panels, depending on your definition of “we”. Globally we installed 380GW nameplate just in the first half of this year and will probably match that in the second half.