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You were wrong. The NIF doesn't simulate the entire chain of events of a successful detonation. Some experts have pushed for a resumption of American undergroun

You were wrong. The NIF doesn't simulate the entire chain of events of a successful detonation. Some experts have pushed for a resumption of American underground tests that exceed treaty yield limitations as a surety check on the new Reliable Replacement Warheads, so it's not like they are without utility. More importantly, if China and Russia are cheating (which it appears that they are by masking their own tests that exceed treaty yield limitations) this gives the US a bargaining chip — back off and the US will, don't and we won't. That's what this is all about.

CamperBob2 1y ago
What are the yield limitations in the treaty? My understanding is that all live-fire bomb tests regardless of yield were prohibited.
- aerostable_slug 1y ago
  The CTBT calls for a zero nuclear yield threshold; all tests must remain subcritical. It seems likely that China (DoS 2020 report) and Russia (DoS 2022 report) have exceeded this.
anigbrowl 1y ago
The NIF doesn't need to simulate that, unless you think the mathematics of nuclear criticality and radioactive decay are changing. if China and Russia are cheating (which it appears that they are by masking their own tests that exceed treaty yield limitations) I remember this idea being floated a few years ago, but the evidence was tissue thin. Perhaps the Russian activity was based on intel sources (which would understandably not be disclosed), the allegations of Chinese activity were based on construction activity that might be compatible with low yield nuclear testing. Also, I don't think the US has any standing to grumble about the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty limitations, not having ratified the treaty itself - literally a case of 'do as I say, not as I do.' I distrust Russia in general and consider China suspect where security is concerned, but the incumbent administration in the US isn't trustworthy either.

CamperBob2 1y ago

What are the yield limitations in the treaty? My understanding is that all live-fire bomb tests regardless of yield were prohibited.

aerostable_slug 1y ago
The CTBT calls for a zero nuclear yield threshold; all tests must remain subcritical. It seems likely that China (DoS 2020 report) and Russia (DoS 2022 report) have exceeded this.

anigbrowl 1y ago

The NIF doesn't need to simulate that, unless you think the mathematics of nuclear criticality and radioactive decay are changing. if China and Russia are cheating (which it appears that they are by masking their own tests that exceed treaty yield limitations) I remember this idea being floated a few years ago, but the evidence was tissue thin. Perhaps the Russian activity was based on intel sources (which would understandably not be disclosed), the allegations of Chinese activity were based on construction activity that might be compatible with low yield nuclear testing. Also, I don't think the US has any standing to grumble about the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty limitations, not having ratified the treaty itself - literally a case of 'do as I say, not as I do.' I distrust Russia in general and consider China suspect where security is concerned, but the incumbent administration in the US isn't trustworthy either.