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> The safest investment you can make in this AI race is Alphabet. From the technical/talent/funding side, I agree with you. With Alphabet, the real risk is tha

by sjs382 11mo ago

> The safest investment you can make in this AI race is Alphabet. From the technical/talent/funding side, I agree with you. With Alphabet, the real risk is that they lose interest/focus and kill (or pivot) products early. I don't really see that happening in the short term (considering the hype/investments/cash around AI) but maybe in the medium to long term if things start to get stale. Even with that risk though, I agree with you.

overfeed 11mo ago
The chances of Alphabet losing interest in AI are vanishingly small. Google (pre-Alphabet remaming) was the AI company before AI companies were called that.
- acdha 11mo ago
  They didn’t lose interest in messaging when they cycled through half a dozen different apps but the problem was they were building products they wanted to exist rather than what users wanted. I’d worry about AI getting similar churn if PMs make their name by launching a new product rather than improving an existing one.
  - overfeed 11mo ago
    The root comment was investor-centric, i.e. if you want to divert some investment towards AI, Alphabet is a smart bet. Investors got great returns as Google churned messaging platforms, and this will likely be the case ad Google churns through AI products, or even entire architectures.
    - acdha 11mo ago
      We did get good returns but that was because other units did very well. It’s not a given but still too likely that they’d botch AI products but still be profitable due to ad sales continuing to grow. I do think AI has better than average chances, though, because it seems to have scared their senior management enough to do their jobs: from outside, everything appears to radiate “this can’t fail” in a way they haven’t had since the 2000s.
  - sjs382 11mo ago
    That makes sense framing it as a skepticism about Google Gemini (a single product) rather than their interest in a category (AI). I'm less worried about them genuinely losing interest then Google outlasting their AI competition and then kneecapping their AI product to protect their cash cow.
- sjs382 11mo ago
  > Google (pre-Alphabet renaming) was the AI company before AI companies were called that. I disagree. They're an advertising/attention company. The jury's still out on whether their AI offerings will compliment their existing business or will cannibalize it. And in the case that it cannibalizes the advertising business, will they undermine/kneecap it to protect that cash cow? It's been a while since they've been the "don't be evil" and "organizing the world's information"-mission Google.
  - Jcowell 11mo ago
    A company can be multiple things. Just like Apple is a Phone, Tablet, & General Computing Company
    - sjs382 11mo ago
      Agreed, but there's no denying that selling advertising is Google/Alphabet's primary business. And it's not even close.
      - ac29 11mo ago
        Its the majority of their revenue, but the share is shrinking Revenue attributable to advertising: Q1: 74.1% Q2: 74.0% Q3: 72.5%

by sjs382 11mo ago

overfeed 11mo ago

The chances of Alphabet losing interest in AI are vanishingly small. Google (pre-Alphabet remaming) was the AI company before AI companies were called that.

acdha 11mo ago
They didn’t lose interest in messaging when they cycled through half a dozen different apps but the problem was they were building products they wanted to exist rather than what users wanted. I’d worry about AI getting similar churn if PMs make their name by launching a new product rather than improving an existing one.
- overfeed 11mo ago
  The root comment was investor-centric, i.e. if you want to divert some investment towards AI, Alphabet is a smart bet. Investors got great returns as Google churned messaging platforms, and this will likely be the case ad Google churns through AI products, or even entire architectures.
  - acdha 11mo ago
    We did get good returns but that was because other units did very well. It’s not a given but still too likely that they’d botch AI products but still be profitable due to ad sales continuing to grow. I do think AI has better than average chances, though, because it seems to have scared their senior management enough to do their jobs: from outside, everything appears to radiate “this can’t fail” in a way they haven’t had since the 2000s.
- sjs382 11mo ago
  That makes sense framing it as a skepticism about Google Gemini (a single product) rather than their interest in a category (AI). I'm less worried about them genuinely losing interest then Google outlasting their AI competition and then kneecapping their AI product to protect their cash cow.
sjs382 11mo ago
> Google (pre-Alphabet renaming) was the AI company before AI companies were called that. I disagree. They're an advertising/attention company. The jury's still out on whether their AI offerings will compliment their existing business or will cannibalize it. And in the case that it cannibalizes the advertising business, will they undermine/kneecap it to protect that cash cow? It's been a while since they've been the "don't be evil" and "organizing the world's information"-mission Google.
- Jcowell 11mo ago
  A company can be multiple things. Just like Apple is a Phone, Tablet, & General Computing Company
  - sjs382 11mo ago
    Agreed, but there's no denying that selling advertising is Google/Alphabet's primary business. And it's not even close.
    - ac29 11mo ago
      Its the majority of their revenue, but the share is shrinking Revenue attributable to advertising: Q1: 74.1% Q2: 74.0% Q3: 72.5%