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Jacques, I've been reading and enjoying your posts here for at least 15 years. (Thank you for your service.) But I think you're totally incorrect on this; oAI

Jacques, I've been reading and enjoying your posts here for at least 15 years. (Thank you for your service.) But I think you're totally incorrect on this; oAI is going to be one of the enduring tech consumer brands built in this half of the 21st century.

bazmattaz 1y ago
Why do you say so? They’re burning cash and don’t currently have a viable path to profitability. Sure they have millions of MAU but not many paying ones.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- laluser 1y ago
  Look at all the companies that have 'burned cash' with no viable path to profitability over the last 20 years. The good ones outlive that criticism, easily. Think Uber, etc. They clearly see a path to profitability and they have plenty of room to experiment here with what works. With new partnerships and dependencies, they won't run out of cash for a long time.
  - nmfisher 1y ago
    I don’t know the exact numbers, but I feel like OpenAI raised far more money than those companies, burned through it far quicker and has much more competition with a much shakier value proposition. They definitely have a strong consumer brand so it’s not like they’re going to disappear, but I understand the bear case.
    - laluser 1y ago
      Sam A is pretty well connected and knows the game well. No doubt there will be some risks where the whole thing goes right down to zero, but I personally wouldn't bet against them.
      - int_19h 1y ago
        I wouldn't bet against Sam Altman personally, but that's very different from betting on OpenAI.
      - nmfisher 1y ago
        I'm sure Sam A will be fine, an IPO will probably see him ride off into the sunset with billions. The average public investor buying pre-IPO shares, though, is a different story.
  - array_key_first 1y ago
    I would not be convinced they outlive the criticism. I think it's highly likely in the next 10 years companies like Spotify and Uber will no longer exist. They're fundamentally antogonistic to their capital.
    - bazmattaz 1y ago
      Spotify is a profitable business now though right? Sure it doesn’t make huge profits due to paying out about 70% to larks but it’s finally profitable
      - array_key_first 1y ago
        Yes, barely, and after cutting revenue per stream to 1/4th of what it was. Many artists make negative money on Spotify, because you have to pay them to put your music on there. And then if Spotify thinks bots are listening to your streams, you have to pay them more. It's the same problem for Uber. Many Uber drivers make a negative wage. They don't know it, because nobody is going to tell them, but if you do the math, depending on your location, vehicle, and rates, you make a negative wage. Due to gas cost, tolls, maintenance, etc. The problem here is that the uber drivers and artists are the only thing that makes the platform worth using. Spotify might think their capital is technology. That's because they're stupid. No, their capital is the library of music artists put on there. If you continue to just antagonize and destroy your own capital that you're using to make money, your business will be blow up.
        bazmattaz 1y ago
        I think it’s a bit disingenuous to say that Spotify “cut” the revenue per stream. Spotify doesn’t have a fixed revenue per stream, payouts are dynamic and based on how much revenue it made and how many streams there are in total. Also Spotify gives something like 80% of its revenue to the music industry. It’s essentially a pie that gets divided up amongst all artists by steam count. If your friend’s garage band are angry that they only get 0.001 cents per stream then they should be angry at Spotify listeners for streaming too much Taylor Swift!!! Furthermore to pay the artists Spotify has to pay the labels and of course they take a giant cut. This trope of Spotify being an evil corporation is unfair
- vessenes 1y ago
  I’ve written about it at some length here, but tldr: their ops are super profitable, likely 1bn per month net income right now. Their R&D costs are immense. You need to believe a story in which their R&D is a waste and other Competitor’s R&D is not or alternately all R&D in the space is a waste and they somehow are unable to use their capital advantage to maintain their substantial brand lead before you believe they are doomed.
  - bilekas 1y ago
    > With an annualized revenue run rate expected to reach about $20 billion by year-end, losses are also mounting inside the $500 billion company, the people said. There is a time limit for shareholders to make return on that investment and so far their operating costs are astronomical given they don't yet seem to offer any substantial product that can't be without, if anything, they're pushing people further away from AI with the slop their churning out. reference : https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-jugg...
jacquesm 1y ago
Time will tell. I've been wrong before. Note that I'm not saying that OpenAI will disappear, just that it will end up as a wholly owned subsidiary of Microsoft.
bilekas 1y ago
> oAI is going to be one of the enduring tech consumer brands built in this half of the 21st century I am curious why you think that, they're early to market but that by no means guarantees them a long term place at the table.

bazmattaz 1y ago

Why do you say so? They’re burning cash and don’t currently have a viable path to profitability. Sure they have millions of MAU but not many paying ones.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
laluser 1y ago
Look at all the companies that have 'burned cash' with no viable path to profitability over the last 20 years. The good ones outlive that criticism, easily. Think Uber, etc. They clearly see a path to profitability and they have plenty of room to experiment here with what works. With new partnerships and dependencies, they won't run out of cash for a long time.
- nmfisher 1y ago
  I don’t know the exact numbers, but I feel like OpenAI raised far more money than those companies, burned through it far quicker and has much more competition with a much shakier value proposition. They definitely have a strong consumer brand so it’s not like they’re going to disappear, but I understand the bear case.
  - laluser 1y ago
    Sam A is pretty well connected and knows the game well. No doubt there will be some risks where the whole thing goes right down to zero, but I personally wouldn't bet against them.
    - int_19h 1y ago
      I wouldn't bet against Sam Altman personally, but that's very different from betting on OpenAI.
    - nmfisher 1y ago
      I'm sure Sam A will be fine, an IPO will probably see him ride off into the sunset with billions. The average public investor buying pre-IPO shares, though, is a different story.
- array_key_first 1y ago
  I would not be convinced they outlive the criticism. I think it's highly likely in the next 10 years companies like Spotify and Uber will no longer exist. They're fundamentally antogonistic to their capital.
  - bazmattaz 1y ago
    Spotify is a profitable business now though right? Sure it doesn’t make huge profits due to paying out about 70% to larks but it’s finally profitable
    - array_key_first 1y ago
      Yes, barely, and after cutting revenue per stream to 1/4th of what it was. Many artists make negative money on Spotify, because you have to pay them to put your music on there. And then if Spotify thinks bots are listening to your streams, you have to pay them more. It's the same problem for Uber. Many Uber drivers make a negative wage. They don't know it, because nobody is going to tell them, but if you do the math, depending on your location, vehicle, and rates, you make a negative wage. Due to gas cost, tolls, maintenance, etc. The problem here is that the uber drivers and artists are the only thing that makes the platform worth using. Spotify might think their capital is technology. That's because they're stupid. No, their capital is the library of music artists put on there. If you continue to just antagonize and destroy your own capital that you're using to make money, your business will be blow up.
      - bazmattaz 1y ago
        I think it’s a bit disingenuous to say that Spotify “cut” the revenue per stream. Spotify doesn’t have a fixed revenue per stream, payouts are dynamic and based on how much revenue it made and how many streams there are in total. Also Spotify gives something like 80% of its revenue to the music industry. It’s essentially a pie that gets divided up amongst all artists by steam count. If your friend’s garage band are angry that they only get 0.001 cents per stream then they should be angry at Spotify listeners for streaming too much Taylor Swift!!! Furthermore to pay the artists Spotify has to pay the labels and of course they take a giant cut. This trope of Spotify being an evil corporation is unfair
vessenes 1y ago
I’ve written about it at some length here, but tldr: their ops are super profitable, likely 1bn per month net income right now. Their R&D costs are immense. You need to believe a story in which their R&D is a waste and other Competitor’s R&D is not or alternately all R&D in the space is a waste and they somehow are unable to use their capital advantage to maintain their substantial brand lead before you believe they are doomed.
- bilekas 1y ago
  > With an annualized revenue run rate expected to reach about $20 billion by year-end, losses are also mounting inside the $500 billion company, the people said. There is a time limit for shareholders to make return on that investment and so far their operating costs are astronomical given they don't yet seem to offer any substantial product that can't be without, if anything, they're pushing people further away from AI with the slop their churning out. reference : https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-jugg...

jacquesm 1y ago

Time will tell. I've been wrong before. Note that I'm not saying that OpenAI will disappear, just that it will end up as a wholly owned subsidiary of Microsoft.

bilekas 1y ago

> oAI is going to be one of the enduring tech consumer brands built in this half of the 21st century I am curious why you think that, they're early to market but that by no means guarantees them a long term place at the table.