>> The best predictor of future events is past experience. That's why you're currently reading HN with Internet Explorer on your IBM desktop running OS/2 2025.

>> The best predictor of future events is past experience. That's why you're currently reading HN with Internet Explorer on your IBM desktop running OS/2 2025. The adage about history as an indicator only applies to the steady state. It compeltely breaks down when with events that are so rare as to be unpredictable when they have extreme - good or bad - consequences. ex: "The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology." And I would argue the world today isn't even close to the edge of the spectrum when it comes to lack of predictability or how extreme the outcomes may be.