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> Get .... Access to AI Models Until 2032 If OpenAI cracks AGI, like they seem to believe they will before 2032, I wonder what "access" MSFT will have to that

> Get .... Access to AI Models Until 2032 If OpenAI cracks AGI, like they seem to believe they will before 2032, I wonder what "access" MSFT will have to that and what the consequences of that will be.

stavros 1y ago
OpenAI (or rather, Sam Altman) has believed they'll crack AGI every year so far.
- onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago
  Could've sworn they told us AGI was here 2 years ago already.
  - Zambyte 1y ago
    Asking people to define "general intelligence" in a way that does not include capabilities we have had for years always reveals that people do not believe that they themselves are capable of general intelligence. At least if they held themselves to the same standards. People expect general intelligence to mean oracle of truth, yet they make mistakes. People expect general intelligence to mean perfect memory, yet they themselves forget. People expect general intelligence to be infinitely moldable and adaptable, yet they themselves will be unable to break habits, and be unable to reason about psychedelic experiences. If we do not currently have something that can be called AGI, we do not have something that can be called GI.
- ilikecakeandpie 1y ago
  Just like autopilot/full self driving on Teslas
- lopsidedmarble 1y ago
  These current llm companies will be unable to "crack AGI". Some independent researcher will, and it will require ridiculously less compute then the embarrassing things these llm companies produce. Unfortunately, these current llm companies will still be in the best position: liquid capital, relationships with more capital, access to hardware; to productize the discovery. At that time I hope these resources will be nationalized and handed to the public.
kakacik 1y ago
Thats some mighty wishful thinking, or more like PR blahs without any substance at all.
Taters91 1y ago
AGI just means an arbitrary revenue number according to OpenAI and MSFT. It's not a real thing. It's made up.
- spwa4 1y ago
  The real promise behing OpenAI's technology and AI in general is, unlimited mental and later physical labor, on capital expenditure only, even tax-free. If you're rich, or even a government, surely you can see why this is worth a LOT. And if you're poor ... well ... I'm sure they'll toss you a few scraps. The real scary thing is that, fundamentally, democracy, human rights ... make sense because of labor relations. This has at least the potential to end labor relations.
tantalor 1y ago
Prediction markets are saying 2032-2033 > before 2032: 51% > before 2033: 61% https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
lm28469 1y ago
> If OpenAI cracks AGI, like they seem to believe they will before 2032, I bet we won't even have fully self driving cars by then lmao, "2 more years guys, just gib me $7 trillion I promise I'll let you play with skynet when it's finished" Full blown delusional egomaniacs

stavros 1y ago

OpenAI (or rather, Sam Altman) has believed they'll crack AGI every year so far.

onlyrealcuzzo 1y ago
Could've sworn they told us AGI was here 2 years ago already.
- Zambyte 1y ago
  Asking people to define "general intelligence" in a way that does not include capabilities we have had for years always reveals that people do not believe that they themselves are capable of general intelligence. At least if they held themselves to the same standards. People expect general intelligence to mean oracle of truth, yet they make mistakes. People expect general intelligence to mean perfect memory, yet they themselves forget. People expect general intelligence to be infinitely moldable and adaptable, yet they themselves will be unable to break habits, and be unable to reason about psychedelic experiences. If we do not currently have something that can be called AGI, we do not have something that can be called GI.
ilikecakeandpie 1y ago
Just like autopilot/full self driving on Teslas
lopsidedmarble 1y ago
These current llm companies will be unable to "crack AGI". Some independent researcher will, and it will require ridiculously less compute then the embarrassing things these llm companies produce. Unfortunately, these current llm companies will still be in the best position: liquid capital, relationships with more capital, access to hardware; to productize the discovery. At that time I hope these resources will be nationalized and handed to the public.

kakacik 1y ago

Thats some mighty wishful thinking, or more like PR blahs without any substance at all.

Taters91 1y ago

AGI just means an arbitrary revenue number according to OpenAI and MSFT. It's not a real thing. It's made up.

spwa4 1y ago
The real promise behing OpenAI's technology and AI in general is, unlimited mental and later physical labor, on capital expenditure only, even tax-free. If you're rich, or even a government, surely you can see why this is worth a LOT. And if you're poor ... well ... I'm sure they'll toss you a few scraps. The real scary thing is that, fundamentally, democracy, human rights ... make sense because of labor relations. This has at least the potential to end labor relations.

tantalor 1y ago

Prediction markets are saying 2032-2033 > before 2032: 51% > before 2033: 61% https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

lm28469 1y ago

> If OpenAI cracks AGI, like they seem to believe they will before 2032, I bet we won't even have fully self driving cars by then lmao, "2 more years guys, just gib me $7 trillion I promise I'll let you play with skynet when it's finished" Full blown delusional egomaniacs