John Carmack has said a number of times that it is not the next thing, but it is the thing after next (or the thing after). The benefits of ray tracing come in

John Carmack has said a number of times that it is not the next thing, but it is the thing after next (or the thing after). The benefits of ray tracing come in precisely because it is more like simulation than street magic. Once you get to sufficient complexity, it is too hard to maintain an illusion. The truth is more consistent than an elaborate lie. We are not yet close to that level of complexity. We will be eventually. Anyone putting a date on that time before it arrives is almost certainly going to be wrong.