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I appreciate the noble motives behind this, but programs like the AMBER alert have not proven very effective[1]. Furthermore, abductions by strangers are incre
by chimeracoder 14y ago
I appreciate the noble motives behind this, but programs like the AMBER alert have not proven very effective[1].
Furthermore, abductions by strangers are incredibly rare; most abductions are by people that the child knows well (such as an estranged parent/relative, etc.). These are the cases for which the AMBER alert is most likely to have success, but they're also the cases for which it is the least likely to be necessary (ie, people investigating the case are going to be several steps ahead of a passerby who happens to drive by the billboard).
Also, 75% of children who are abducted and murdered are killed within the first three hours, so the shelf life of these alerts is incredibly small. Even smaller for people who are sitting at the computer when they see the alert, not driving on a freeway.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMBER_Alert#Controversy_about_success_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMBER_Alert#Controversy_about_...
- paulhauggis 14y agoIt seems like you are saying that the effort is futile because they won't find them anyway. It doesn't matter of they are "incredibly rare". We are talking about human lives here. If it saves one life, it's worth it.
- zmj 14y agoPlease read this: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=psychology-of-taboo-tradeoff http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=psychology-... > When people are asked to trade their sacred values for values considered to be secular—what psychologist Philip Tetlock refers to as a “taboo tradeoff”—they exhibit moral outrage, express anger and disgust, become increasingly inflexible in negotiations, and display an insensitivity to a strict cost-benefit analysis of the exchange. What’s more, when people receive monetary offers for relinquishing a sacred value, they display a particularly striking irrationality. Not only are people unwilling to compromise sacred values for money—contrary to classic economic theory’s assumption that financial incentives motivate behavior—but the inclusion of money in an offer produces a backfire effect such that people become even less likely to give up their sacred values compared to when an offer does not include money. People consider trading sacred values for money so morally reprehensible that they recoil at such proposals.
- fusiongyro 14y agoAn interesting article about human behavior. How nice. However, I don't see a categorical disproof in there of the idea that saving lives is something worth spending time and money on, so could you take a minute and connect the dots for us plebs? Thanks.
- scott_s 14y agoI assume zmj's point is that we implicitly make this trade-off all the time. For example, cars could be safer, but then they would be more expensive. Anytime we opt for a cheaper car with less safety features, we are making a cost-benefit analysis involving our own lives and the lives of the people who will travel in our car. (Who are probably the most important people to us.) There becomes a point where the actual gains in life-saving potential is negligible, and we don't think it is worth the cost. But we rarely state it that way.
- monkeypizza 14y agoWe could easily make cars way, way safer - put a giant, sharp spike sticking out of the center of the steering wheel, pointed at the driver's heart, and forbid seatbelts. Nobody would ever go over 5mph, or put themselves at risk of crashing into anything.
- jcampbell1 14y agoYou have completely botched this example. This example is useful to explain why airbags increase collisions. Putting a spear in cars would not make cars safer.
- thalecress 14y agoI don't understand your objection. Do you see a meaningful distinction between "cars are safer" and "cars are driven more safely"?
- mnicole 14y agoMaybe this makes me a terrible person or someone with a bad photographic memory, but I literally cannot recall any missing person's face that I've seen on a billboard, a website, a milk carton, etc. even if I saw them daily. Worse, the more sites that adopt this concept, the less likely I am to remember those faces and - out of how plain awful and sad it is it is - the less likely I am to even want to spend time looking at them. There's got to be a better way.
- trotsky 14y agoTo clarify: The idea isn't that you'll remember a picture, but rather that you might recognize a child you already know.
- mnicole 14y agoI just think it is a slippery slope where the ratio of false leads to legitimate tips weighs too heavily on the former for this to be practical and not threatening to real families when someone wants to play the hero. I'd be interested in seeing statistics about the percentage of abductees that are allowed to be seen in public without any sort of cosmetic alterations or other such obscurations, particularly in the first few months/years. Perhaps their captors are more lazy about that than I'd assume.
- hermannj314 14y agoWe've come a long way from annual telethons or weekly tithings to every spare second of everything in our lives needing to be philanthropized - including 404 pages! You know those pages in books "this page intentionally left blank" - think of all the children we could save!!!! Over-exposure will only serve to desensitize us to worthy causes. Everything in moderation.
- mnicole 14y agoDitto. I'd also imagine that if I were the loved one of such a victim, the last thing I'd want while perusing the internet is another reminder. And this isn't even getting into what the scum of the internet would/could do to exploit or otherwise vandalize these databases or the content therein.
- sliverstorm 14y agoWe are talking about human lives here. If it saves one life, it's worth it. Ah, one of my favorite arguments. The good 'ol, "there is no price which is too high to save a life (period, full-stop)". Do you actually believe that? Really? Or am I just reading you wrong here?
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- inportb 14y agoWe think human lives are priceless because we like to believe that everyone is unique. There is no warranty replacement for children born defective; nor could you replace them when they break, go missing, etc.
- pharrington 14y agoWell obviously everyone is unique in that there's only one of any given life, regardless of whether or not anyone's life is qualitatively unique. But it seems obvious (at least to me) that what's much more relevant is that as self-reflective human beings, we have a responsibility to protect other human lives, within reason. Of course, what "within reason" means is a whole subject on it's own.
- sliverstorm 14y agoThat "within reason" is the key.
- philh 14y agoLooked at from one (unreasonable) level, everything is unique. Looked at from another (unreasonable) level, most humans could be replaced with other humans and very little would change. There's no obvious-to-me level to look from where this argument applies to humans, but not to pet cats and dogs.
- sliverstorm 14y agoEveryone is unique, in a sense. The real trip-up in that logic is, just because something is one-of-a-kind doesn't mean it has infinite value.
- tobias3 14y agoWe live in a world with finite resources. That means nothing is free and everything has a cost associated with it. That means you have to think a little bit about the cost and benefit of doing something. You cannot save all children.
- bmm6o 14y agoIf it's that important, it shouldn't go on a 404 page (which, ideally, people won't see). You should dedicate space on all of your pages for pictures of missing kids. And escaped convicts.
- pharrington 14y agoWhat if it's not worth it? Can notfound.org keep up with increasing server loads? Do Missing Children Europe and Child Focus have adequate resources to run this project along with everything else they do? Will people become desensitized to missing children photos on 404 pages? What about all the other potential issues I'm not thinking of? Yeah launching this website is definitely a morally good action, but whether or not it will prove to have any actual positive consequence will need to be seen.
- rmc 14y agoWe are talking about human lives here. If it saves one life, it's worth it. That is a good sentiment, but unfortunately it's not how a lot of society works. For example, many people die of poor nutrition, or from lack of the best medical care. If the wealth of the top 30% of the population (y'know all the billionares, millionares & upper class (maybe some middle class)) was confiscated then we could save these lives. However many societies do not make this decision, for some societies & cultures, that price is too high.
- emiliobumachar 14y agoThe inevitable economic collapse from the warped incentives would likely cost more lives.
- autophil 14y agoIf even ONE SINGLE CHILD is found and returned back into the loving arms of a parent due to a repurposed 404 page, the initiative is a great success. Don't you think?
- mikeash 14y agoThat would depend entirely on the cost of the initiative and what other things, including potentially more effective ways of rescuing kidnapped children, could be done instead.
- autophil 14y agoYour answer makes me want to quit HN forever and move to the planet Mars where humans don't live.
- mikeash 14y agoYeah, it sure is awful when humans are able to apply logic to figure out solutions to terrible problems.
- moe 14y agoThat seems rather egoistic. Can you imagine how many children could be saved for the cost of a single mars mission?
- philh 14y agoAmusingly, I have a similar reaction as you, but to the other side of the debate.
- sachingulaya 14y agoA friend of mine growing up had an older brother who was abducted. His mother quit her job and spent the next 5 years looking for him. Eventually, she found him. She called her mother's home and her son picked up the phone. He had been abducted by his uncle and told that his mother had sent him to live with his extended family. No one suspected it. Now, I know n=1 is not a good sample size, but to downplay the significance of kidnappings by "someone the child knows" or that "it was a family member" is not reasonable. Also, a study on the effectiveness of amber alert messages on the freeway be extrapolated to give data on results from a 404 campaign. I can't estimate whether or not internet amber alerts are a good or a bad idea. Just tossing in my 0.02.
- sliverstorm 14y agoYour parent is not arguing that kidnappings by non-strangers are insignificant; rather, that public service announcements about such kidnapping are unproductive. Whether this is actually the case, I have no idea.
- tlrobinson 14y agoAnd your parent was providing an example where public service announcements about such kidnappings could have been productive.
- scotty79 14y agoI don't think he provided example for successful public service announcement.
- rmc 14y agoYes they did. In the original story, no-one doubted the uncle's claim that the child had been sent by their parents. If there were public service announcements that "This child is offically missing", someone might have copped that something was up.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- davedx 14y agoBillboard?? Over here (in the Netherlands), we have a text message / radio broadcast / digital road sign alert that's put out within hours of the child being reported stolen. > Also, 75% of children who are abducted and murdered are killed within the first three hours This is exactly why it's a very fast, responsive system (here).
- codeodor 14y agoThe parent post mentions "billboard" but it is a digital road sign (at least the ones I've seen). It's on a pole higher up so people can see it easily, similar to how many billboards are done.