4 ms·

You are reasonably certain now, based on what information? This really is a funny case study on how rumors develop on the internet...

by Tichy 14y ago

ChuckMcM 14y ago
Based on three things: 1) Various facts with regard to AMaps quality (fit and finish) vs GMaps quality. Knowledge of licensing terms [1] and the fact that 2012 is 5 years after 2007 (introduction of the iPhone [2]). 2) Interviews with Google executives over the various Android lawsuits and tweets from Andy Rubin amongst others. 3) The "make money now" mantra that has swept through Google cancelling dozens of projects and creating pricing models for the ones that remain (AppEngine, Maps, Etc.) So like any good investigator one looks at what is known, and what is not known, and trys to come up with a series of steps that would lead to the observed outcome (in this case crappy maps on the iPhone). You can classify those in the range from "more likely" to "less likely". So for example a theory that "Google Maps are no longer on the iPhone because Apple forgot to renew their license." would seem improbable, putting together something as complex as the iPhone doesn't allow for 'forgetting' such things. A theory that "Apple couldn't get a license" also fails the sniff test as Google clearly licenses things to folks all the time, they have a revenue model for that and as a publicly traded company they generally don't "not take revenue" when its possible to do so effectively. So if you get to the point in your reasoning that Apple could get a license if they wanted to, and Google could give them that license if they wanted to. Then you are left looking at a failed negotiation. I've participated in both successful and unsuccessful negotiations like these, its like many things where the details or scale may be different but the basic steps share a lot of similarities. That leaves us speculating on how the negotiations failed. Given how badly the AMaps product (as shipped) is in comparison to the GMaps product, clearly Google was in a fairly strong negotiating position. Given Apple's free cash flow and assets (remember they made more profit last quarter than Google made in all revenue) they clearly could afford to pay a pretty arbitrary price. The simplest answer (which for me makes it the most likely) is that Apple was unwilling to meet the terms Google set for licensing. So you (Tichy) have posed variations on this question to a number of people on a number of threads here but I've yet to see any reasoning you might have for why you don't believe this is the case. I realize it is implied by the snark but not actually expressed as a dissenting opinion. I'd love to hear your reasoning on it if you are free to share it. I note in a sister comment you mention 'revoke' the license, I don't think Google did any such thing, I believe the license expired and it was up for renewal, it was the renewal that failed to materialize. [1] "Our license to include the YouTube app in iOS has ended, customers can use YouTube in the Safari browser and Google is working on a new YouTube app to be on the App Store," explains Apple in a brief statement to The Verge. -- http://www.maclife.com/article/news/apple_ios_youtube_license_over_google_offer_its_own_app_ios_6 http://www.maclife.com/article/news/apple_ios_youtube_licens... [2] "iPhone also includes Google Maps, featuring Google’s groundbreaking maps service and iPhone’s amazing maps application, offering the best maps experience by far on any pocket device. Users can view maps, satellite images, traffic information and get directions, all from iPhone’s remarkable and easy-to-use touch interface. " -- https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/01/09Apple-Reinvents-the-Phone-with-iPhone.html https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/01/09Apple-Reinvents-t...
- Tichy 14y ago
  My reasoning is simple: everything Google does has the goal of collecting more data. Therefore they are interested in having maps on the iPhone. The iPhone being popular as it is, not collecting data from it's users is a huge black data hole. I think Apple already kicked the Google search as default (another thing that might factor into your sleuthing?)? If they were sure that Apple would always stick with Google search and maps, they wouldn't need Android (which they give away for free). They give away Android for free, so they are not really that interested in shipping lots of Android phones - it is the same to them if an Android phone ships or an iPhone with Google search and maps. Of course since Apple wants to get away from Google, Google needs Android to stay relevant in mobile search. It's true, they probably won't give maps for free (I remember Nokia paid several billion dollars for their maps, so these things are not cheap), but I suspect ads on the device would have been sufficient (plus the data that comes with it - movement patterns as well as reactivity to ads). Why would they need more? iPhone users could always check Google Maps in the browser (ad supported), why would it cost more to show the maps in a nice app? Do you actually think Google upped the price? Apple had announced quite a while ago that they want to kick Google maps, iirc. I can see why they are unhappy, they miss the data, the ad revenue and the freedom to add features at will. So it seems to me Google had all reasons to be content with the status quo, whereas Apple had all reasons to kick the maps. If they upped the price, how come Google Maps are still available on iOS 5? That must hurt Apple a lot, given that there are already millions of iOS 5 devices around. (I think GMaps are still available on iOS 5 because a friend of mine downgraded to iOS 5 to get the maps back). I find it funny that you describe your approach as "what a good inspector would do". I think it is very easy to find arguments or data points to support something your want to believe. In my opinion a good inspector should always doubt everything. But you have me there - of course I can not prove anything either. It's just funny how suddenly it is all Google's fault in the eye of the Apple fans. Naturally Apple can never go wrong, case closed. Apple has never shown any signs of hubris before. Also, btw, while Apple is apparently richer than Google, I don't think Google needs cash that badly. What they need is data and a handhold on devices to secure their future. Obviously once Apple has established their own maps, Google maps are never coming back to the iPhone. So to gamble that away doesn't make sense at all. And another point: what about Bing maps, or Nokia maps? Why didn't Apple partner with them if all they want is some good maps?

You are reasonably certain now, based on what information? This really is a funny case study on how rumors develop on the internet...

by Tichy 14y ago

You are reasonably certain now, based on what information? This really is a funny case study on how rumors develop on the internet...

ChuckMcM 14y ago

Based on three things: 1) Various facts with regard to AMaps quality (fit and finish) vs GMaps quality. Knowledge of licensing terms [1] and the fact that 2012 is 5 years after 2007 (introduction of the iPhone [2]). 2) Interviews with Google executives over the various Android lawsuits and tweets from Andy Rubin amongst others. 3) The "make money now" mantra that has swept through Google cancelling dozens of projects and creating pricing models for the ones that remain (AppEngine, Maps, Etc.) So like any good investigator one looks at what is known, and what is not known, and trys to come up with a series of steps that would lead to the observed outcome (in this case crappy maps on the iPhone). You can classify those in the range from "more likely" to "less likely". So for example a theory that "Google Maps are no longer on the iPhone because Apple forgot to renew their license." would seem improbable, putting together something as complex as the iPhone doesn't allow for 'forgetting' such things. A theory that "Apple couldn't get a license" also fails the sniff test as Google clearly licenses things to folks all the time, they have a revenue model for that and as a publicly traded company they generally don't "not take revenue" when its possible to do so effectively. So if you get to the point in your reasoning that Apple could get a license if they wanted to, and Google could give them that license if they wanted to. Then you are left looking at a failed negotiation. I've participated in both successful and unsuccessful negotiations like these, its like many things where the details or scale may be different but the basic steps share a lot of similarities. That leaves us speculating on how the negotiations failed. Given how badly the AMaps product (as shipped) is in comparison to the GMaps product, clearly Google was in a fairly strong negotiating position. Given Apple's free cash flow and assets (remember they made more profit last quarter than Google made in all revenue) they clearly could afford to pay a pretty arbitrary price. The simplest answer (which for me makes it the most likely) is that Apple was unwilling to meet the terms Google set for licensing. So you (Tichy) have posed variations on this question to a number of people on a number of threads here but I've yet to see any reasoning you might have for why you don't believe this is the case. I realize it is implied by the snark but not actually expressed as a dissenting opinion. I'd love to hear your reasoning on it if you are free to share it. I note in a sister comment you mention 'revoke' the license, I don't think Google did any such thing, I believe the license expired and it was up for renewal, it was the renewal that failed to materialize. [1] "Our license to include the YouTube app in iOS has ended, customers can use YouTube in the Safari browser and Google is working on a new YouTube app to be on the App Store," explains Apple in a brief statement to The Verge. -- http://www.maclife.com/article/news/apple_ios_youtube_license_over_google_offer_its_own_app_ios_6 http://www.maclife.com/article/news/apple_ios_youtube_licens... [2] "iPhone also includes Google Maps, featuring Google’s groundbreaking maps service and iPhone’s amazing maps application, offering the best maps experience by far on any pocket device. Users can view maps, satellite images, traffic information and get directions, all from iPhone’s remarkable and easy-to-use touch interface. " -- https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/01/09Apple-Reinvents-the-Phone-with-iPhone.html https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/01/09Apple-Reinvents-t...

Tichy 14y ago
My reasoning is simple: everything Google does has the goal of collecting more data. Therefore they are interested in having maps on the iPhone. The iPhone being popular as it is, not collecting data from it's users is a huge black data hole. I think Apple already kicked the Google search as default (another thing that might factor into your sleuthing?)? If they were sure that Apple would always stick with Google search and maps, they wouldn't need Android (which they give away for free). They give away Android for free, so they are not really that interested in shipping lots of Android phones - it is the same to them if an Android phone ships or an iPhone with Google search and maps. Of course since Apple wants to get away from Google, Google needs Android to stay relevant in mobile search. It's true, they probably won't give maps for free (I remember Nokia paid several billion dollars for their maps, so these things are not cheap), but I suspect ads on the device would have been sufficient (plus the data that comes with it - movement patterns as well as reactivity to ads). Why would they need more? iPhone users could always check Google Maps in the browser (ad supported), why would it cost more to show the maps in a nice app? Do you actually think Google upped the price? Apple had announced quite a while ago that they want to kick Google maps, iirc. I can see why they are unhappy, they miss the data, the ad revenue and the freedom to add features at will. So it seems to me Google had all reasons to be content with the status quo, whereas Apple had all reasons to kick the maps. If they upped the price, how come Google Maps are still available on iOS 5? That must hurt Apple a lot, given that there are already millions of iOS 5 devices around. (I think GMaps are still available on iOS 5 because a friend of mine downgraded to iOS 5 to get the maps back). I find it funny that you describe your approach as "what a good inspector would do". I think it is very easy to find arguments or data points to support something your want to believe. In my opinion a good inspector should always doubt everything. But you have me there - of course I can not prove anything either. It's just funny how suddenly it is all Google's fault in the eye of the Apple fans. Naturally Apple can never go wrong, case closed. Apple has never shown any signs of hubris before. Also, btw, while Apple is apparently richer than Google, I don't think Google needs cash that badly. What they need is data and a handhold on devices to secure their future. Obviously once Apple has established their own maps, Google maps are never coming back to the iPhone. So to gamble that away doesn't make sense at all. And another point: what about Bing maps, or Nokia maps? Why didn't Apple partner with them if all they want is some good maps?