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This kind of “hope growth” and LLM based metrics speaks to rot within the economy. Don’t hire more, just say you’re going to build new products and launch somet

This kind of “hope growth” and LLM based metrics speaks to rot within the economy. Don’t hire more, just say you’re going to build new products and launch something half baked with a skeleton crew that’s also maintaining the legacy products. These incumbent companies are able to keep doing this because there’s no one around to eat their lunch. Maybe it’s cheaper to just buy (and kill) any company who legitimately threatens the status quo. Companies should be hungry for real growth. You should not be able to financially engineer your way into stock growth.

strict9 1y ago
Interesting insight. High interest rates keep new startups low. Well, not counting AI startups I guess. And the lack of new (non-AI) startups allows bloated incumbents to get by without innovating or offering new products. Quality destroying measures like offshoring and outsourcing are easier to pull off. As is allowing services and standards to slide. Maybe we'll only know once interest rates come back down. Or once the AI-replacing-workers veil has been lifted. I think this dynamic is an under appreciated source of the chart that shows the decoupling of the job market with the stock market [1] [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/how-scary-is-the-scariest-chart-jolts-spx-labor-market-2025-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-scary-is-the-scariest-ch...
- marbro 1y ago
  Interest rates aren't high, they're manipulated by the government and they're too low. When businesses, governments, and individuals increase their borrowing, as they are now, that means that the cost of borrowing, the interest rate, is too low.
  - Fade_Dance 1y ago
    >When businesses, governments, and individuals increase their borrowing, as they are now, that means that the cost of borrowing, the interest rate, is too low. That's not necessarily the case. Credit expansion comes with healthy growth as well.
- AndrewKemendo 1y ago
  Interest rates only go down to stimulate growth If growth is happening with high interest rates then that means capital can remain out of the hands of the public but debt replaces it If I’m a billionaire my goal is to own everything and have everyone in debt to me based on my personal currency I issue - like points or miles or a corporate debt vehicle for example. Surely we aren’t seeing a increase in debt also right? /s
  - Fade_Dance 1y ago
    >Interest rates only go down to stimulate growth The Fed targets price stability and employment, not growth. Of course that is largely correlated with stimulating growth as a derivative of that, but certainly not "only" to stimulate growth. For example, the current cutting cycle has far more to do with inflation that it does growth. The Fed's primary concern currently is growth accelerating into more inflation. There are other reasons for cutting as well. For example, funding stress. Repo funding stress caused an interest rate pivot not too long ago (and repo funding stress is rising once again, which will be a factor in the current rate decisions.)

strict9 1y ago

Interesting insight. High interest rates keep new startups low. Well, not counting AI startups I guess. And the lack of new (non-AI) startups allows bloated incumbents to get by without innovating or offering new products. Quality destroying measures like offshoring and outsourcing are easier to pull off. As is allowing services and standards to slide. Maybe we'll only know once interest rates come back down. Or once the AI-replacing-workers veil has been lifted. I think this dynamic is an under appreciated source of the chart that shows the decoupling of the job market with the stock market [1] [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/how-scary-is-the-scariest-chart-jolts-spx-labor-market-2025-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-scary-is-the-scariest-ch...

marbro 1y ago
Interest rates aren't high, they're manipulated by the government and they're too low. When businesses, governments, and individuals increase their borrowing, as they are now, that means that the cost of borrowing, the interest rate, is too low.
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  >When businesses, governments, and individuals increase their borrowing, as they are now, that means that the cost of borrowing, the interest rate, is too low. That's not necessarily the case. Credit expansion comes with healthy growth as well.
AndrewKemendo 1y ago
Interest rates only go down to stimulate growth If growth is happening with high interest rates then that means capital can remain out of the hands of the public but debt replaces it If I’m a billionaire my goal is to own everything and have everyone in debt to me based on my personal currency I issue - like points or miles or a corporate debt vehicle for example. Surely we aren’t seeing a increase in debt also right? /s
- Fade_Dance 1y ago
  >Interest rates only go down to stimulate growth The Fed targets price stability and employment, not growth. Of course that is largely correlated with stimulating growth as a derivative of that, but certainly not "only" to stimulate growth. For example, the current cutting cycle has far more to do with inflation that it does growth. The Fed's primary concern currently is growth accelerating into more inflation. There are other reasons for cutting as well. For example, funding stress. Repo funding stress caused an interest rate pivot not too long ago (and repo funding stress is rising once again, which will be a factor in the current rate decisions.)