3 ms·

What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth

by greyw 1y ago

kragen 1y ago
There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
- kragen 1y ago
  Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.

What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth

by greyw 1y ago

What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth

There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.

kragen 1y ago
Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.