3 ms·

GDP is still dropping. We just had our third consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might ha

by kragen 1y ago

GDP is still dropping. We just had our third consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might have been tricked. But growth is at best quite anemic. See longer comment below.

dmitrygr 1y ago
GDP is not always a useful metric. An old economics joke: Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit. The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit. They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit. Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"
- kragen 1y ago
  It's not, but it's the metric the person I replied to was using. This sounds like a Russian joke, and like many Russian jokes, it contains a great deal of truth.
greyw 1y ago
What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth
- kragen 1y ago
  There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
  - kragen 1y ago
    Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.

by kragen 1y ago

dmitrygr 1y ago

GDP is not always a useful metric. An old economics joke: Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit. The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit. They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit. Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"

kragen 1y ago
It's not, but it's the metric the person I replied to was using. This sounds like a Russian joke, and like many Russian jokes, it contains a great deal of truth.

greyw 1y ago

What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth

kragen 1y ago
There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
- kragen 1y ago
  Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.