4 ms·

The thing that a lot of western countries should keep in mind about Milei is that he promised a lot of pain before the prosperity would come...and he did it. In

The thing that a lot of western countries should keep in mind about Milei is that he promised a lot of pain before the prosperity would come...and he did it. Inflation continued for 6 months into his presidency, and then it dropped to levels that haven't been seen for almost a decade. Poverty rates rose for almost a year, but then dropped well below what it was before he took office. GDP dropped for a year, but then rebounded pretty spectacularly. This is more than a year of non-stop naysaying from people who used those things as proof that he was wrong, only to be silenced when he turned out to be right. He hasn't been shy about still needing more help, seeking funding from the IMF and the US, but he has at least proven that what he is doing is working. I have a million reasons to not like Milei, but he is successfully pulling off something that almost no politician ever does without getting voted out first. Anybody who promises pain has to deal with the constant criticism that comes with that pain, and almost nobody can survive that hit to their popularity. Even if you disagree with how he did it, you have to at least admire that he did what he said he would do. I think a lot of American liberals have a hatred of him because he's right wing, but we should actually be (at least partially) praising him and pointing out his successes have come from being the exact opposite of Trump on issues like tariffs and deficits.

kragen 1y ago
GDP is still dropping. We just had our third consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might have been tricked. But growth is at best quite anemic. See longer comment below.
- dmitrygr 1y ago
  GDP is not always a useful metric. An old economics joke: Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit. The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit. They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit. Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"
  - kragen 1y ago
    It's not, but it's the metric the person I replied to was using. This sounds like a Russian joke, and like many Russian jokes, it contains a great deal of truth.
- greyw 1y ago
  What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth
  - kragen 1y ago
    There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
    - kragen 1y ago
      Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.
altcognito 1y ago
> I think a lot of American liberals have a hatred of him because he's right wing, but we should actually be (at least partially) praising him and pointing out his successes have come from being the exact opposite of Trump on issues like tariffs and deficits. No liberal (of which I am), should really have looked at the economic policies they had prior to Milei and think they were a good idea. Leftist populism is no better than right populism. Milei may act like a populist politician, but if his policies are sound (I don't know enough to comment) -- then kudos to him.

kragen 1y ago

GDP is still dropping. We just had our third consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. Edit: I can't find evidence that this is true, and I think I might have been tricked. But growth is at best quite anemic. See longer comment below.

dmitrygr 1y ago
GDP is not always a useful metric. An old economics joke: Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit. The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit. They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit. Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"
- kragen 1y ago
  It's not, but it's the metric the person I replied to was using. This sounds like a Russian joke, and like many Russian jokes, it contains a great deal of truth.
greyw 1y ago
What data are you looking at? I only see yoy growth
- kragen 1y ago
  There's no contradiction between year-over-year growth and nine months of economic decline; year-over-year figures also average in the three months before those nine. Six months, if you are looking at YoY figures for June. However, I may have been tricked. https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_25081553D02E.pdf https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_09_250... says the official statistic is that the de-seasonalized GDP grew 0.9% in the first quarter and fell 0.1% in the second quarter, so even if the third quarter is down (the official statistics aren't out yet) it's only the second consecutive quarter of negative growth on a cyclically adjusted basis. I can't find the non-cyclically-adjusted data. 0.8% growth for the first half of the year is very far from "rebound[ing] pretty spectacularly" but it's no recession. But it all depends on whether the 3Q results are -0.9% or +0.9%. Maybe they'll release the report now that the election is over. Articles like https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-de-que-la-argentina-caiga-en-recesion-se-disparo-casi-al-100-en-medio-de-la-tension-cambiaria-y-el-ruido-politico/ https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/09/17/la-probabilidad-... are about near-future predictions, not established facts.
  - kragen 1y ago
    Just to clarify, that's an increase of 0.8%, not annualized 0.8% growth. Annualized it would be 1.6%, which is below the long-run post-Industrial-Revolution average of around 3%, but far from the immediate catastrophe Fernandez and his economy minister Massa had perpetrated before Milei came to power. For the very simple reasons I explained in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45719672 it looks to me like Milei is further hollowing out the Argentine economy. I'm no professor of economics, so my understanding of these issues is highly oversimplified, so I could be wrong.

altcognito 1y ago

> I think a lot of American liberals have a hatred of him because he's right wing, but we should actually be (at least partially) praising him and pointing out his successes have come from being the exact opposite of Trump on issues like tariffs and deficits. No liberal (of which I am), should really have looked at the economic policies they had prior to Milei and think they were a good idea. Leftist populism is no better than right populism. Milei may act like a populist politician, but if his policies are sound (I don't know enough to comment) -- then kudos to him.