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It wasn't the best definition of AGI but I think if you asked an interested layman whether or not a system that can pass the Turing test was AGI 5 years ago, th

It wasn't the best definition of AGI but I think if you asked an interested layman whether or not a system that can pass the Turing test was AGI 5 years ago, they would have said yes

jltsiren 1y ago
An interested but uninformed layman. When I was in college ~25 years ago, I took a class on the philosophy of AI. People had come up with a lot of weird ideas about AI, but there was one almost universal conclusion: that the Turing test is not a good test for intelligence. The least weird objection was that the premise of the Turing test is unscientific. It sees "this system is intelligent" as a logical statement and seeks to prove or disprove it in an abstract model. But if you perform an experiment to determine if a real-world system is intelligent, the right conclusion for the system passing the test is that the system may be intelligent, but a different experiment might show that it's not.
nativeit 1y ago
Douglas Hofstadter wrote Gödel, Escher, Bach nearly 50-years ago, and it won a Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Award, and got featured in the popular press. It’s been on lots of college reading lists, from 2007 online coursework for high school students was available from MIT. The FBI concluded that the 2001 anthrax scare was in-part inspired by elements of the book, which was found in the attacker’s trash. Anyone who’s wanted to engage with the theories and philosophy surrounding artificial intelligence has had plenty of materials that get fairly in-depth asking and exploring these same questions. It seems like a lot of people seem to think this is all bleeding edge novelty (at least, the underlying philosophical and academic ideas getting discussed in popular media), but rather all of the industry is predicated on ideas that are very old philosophy + decades-old established technology + relatively recent neuroscience + modern financial engineering. That said, I don’t want to suggest a layperson is likely to have engaged with any of it, so I understand why this will be the first time a lot of people will have ever considered some of these questions. I imagine what I’m feeling is fairly common to anyone who’s got a very niche interest that blows up and becomes the topic of interest for the entire world. I think there’s probably some very interesting, as-yet undocumented phenomena occurring that’s been the product of the unbelievably vast amount of resources sunk into what’s otherwise a fairly niche kind of utility (in LLMs specifically, and machine learning more broadly). I’m optimistic that there will be some very transformational technologies to come from it, although whether it will produce anything like “AGI”, or ever justify these levels of investment? Both seem rather unlikely.

It wasn't the best definition of AGI but I think if you asked an interested layman whether or not a system that can pass the Turing test was AGI 5 years ago, they would have said yes

jltsiren 1y ago

An interested but uninformed layman. When I was in college ~25 years ago, I took a class on the philosophy of AI. People had come up with a lot of weird ideas about AI, but there was one almost universal conclusion: that the Turing test is not a good test for intelligence. The least weird objection was that the premise of the Turing test is unscientific. It sees "this system is intelligent" as a logical statement and seeks to prove or disprove it in an abstract model. But if you perform an experiment to determine if a real-world system is intelligent, the right conclusion for the system passing the test is that the system may be intelligent, but a different experiment might show that it's not.

nativeit 1y ago

Douglas Hofstadter wrote Gödel, Escher, Bach nearly 50-years ago, and it won a Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Award, and got featured in the popular press. It’s been on lots of college reading lists, from 2007 online coursework for high school students was available from MIT. The FBI concluded that the 2001 anthrax scare was in-part inspired by elements of the book, which was found in the attacker’s trash. Anyone who’s wanted to engage with the theories and philosophy surrounding artificial intelligence has had plenty of materials that get fairly in-depth asking and exploring these same questions. It seems like a lot of people seem to think this is all bleeding edge novelty (at least, the underlying philosophical and academic ideas getting discussed in popular media), but rather all of the industry is predicated on ideas that are very old philosophy + decades-old established technology + relatively recent neuroscience + modern financial engineering. That said, I don’t want to suggest a layperson is likely to have engaged with any of it, so I understand why this will be the first time a lot of people will have ever considered some of these questions. I imagine what I’m feeling is fairly common to anyone who’s got a very niche interest that blows up and becomes the topic of interest for the entire world. I think there’s probably some very interesting, as-yet undocumented phenomena occurring that’s been the product of the unbelievably vast amount of resources sunk into what’s otherwise a fairly niche kind of utility (in LLMs specifically, and machine learning more broadly). I’m optimistic that there will be some very transformational technologies to come from it, although whether it will produce anything like “AGI”, or ever justify these levels of investment? Both seem rather unlikely.