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CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. If that ends up even partway true it'll compl

CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. If that ends up even partway true it'll completely change the economics of power storage.

nextworddev 1y ago
CATL is just dumping
- nharada 1y ago
  What makes you say that? I don’t know this space very well
  - nextworddev 1y ago
    Dumping batteries is yet another strategy to take control of global energy infrastructure and destabilize petrodollar
    - nharada 1y ago
      Oh yeah I get what you’re saying but is that a thing? Like CATL has had lines before that aren’t making a profit?
      - Qwertious 1y ago
        It's not a thing; people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating.
        deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
        nextworddev 1y ago
        They have decent technology (which they stole a decent chunk) and cheat at the same time.. nothing to do with the west feeling insecurity. In fact, the west could benefit from some mobilizing around insecurity
        tooltalk 1y ago
        > people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating. We are talking since early 2010 and on. And it's pretty much what everyone says they are: China has been breaking every trade/IP laws/agreements -- forced IP transfer/IP theft, ban foreign competition, illegal state subsidies to overcapacity, etc to get to where they are in the EV battery market.
- bryanlarsen 1y ago
  CATL had a profit of $2.6B last quarter on sales of $15B. That indicates they're pricing well above cost rather than below it.
  - tooltalk 1y ago
    dumping doesn't depend on profit or loss. Also the legal definition of dumping is less-than-the-"normal value." (see Article VI ANTI-DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES of GATT 1994). But then China is a non-market-economy, so none of these rules apply in a hypothetical anti-dumping case -- ie, China's local price, or "normal value" doesn't matter.
    - bryanlarsen 1y ago
      A normal value for a highly competitive commodity part like a battery is about 3% above cost. CATL charges over 20% above cost. So you might have an argument that CATL has monopoly pricing power and is gouging its customers. IOW that they're illegally charging too much, not that they are illegally charging too little.
      - tooltalk 1y ago
        Sure, that's not what a normal value is. As explained, the price level or the cost of manufacture in China, the exporting country, is completely irrelevant as their local price/cost of manufacturer is artificially propped up by illegal state subsidies or other anti-market tactics to cripple foreign competition past 15 years. Again, China is a non-market-economy. In those cases, trade regulators can use "undistorted" prices without gov't interference or use a market price in a similarly situated 3rd country as benchmark.
        bryanlarsen 1y ago
        If that's your definition of a non-market economy, then no Western economy is either.
bmicraft 1y ago
That's plain wrong, they have not announced that price target anywhere. There is speculation that it could be there target internally for the long term, but there is basically zero chance they'll start at that price and no guarantees they'll ever reach it.
- nharada 1y ago
  You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...
grayrest 1y ago
> CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. This got widely reported but there doesn't seem to be any source. I'll reference this video [1] to cover the claim along with a comparison to industry projections. Apologies for the video link but I don't have an article handy that addresses the topic as directly. [1] https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861 https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861
- nharada 1y ago
  You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...

nextworddev 1y ago

CATL is just dumping

nharada 1y ago
What makes you say that? I don’t know this space very well
- nextworddev 1y ago
  Dumping batteries is yet another strategy to take control of global energy infrastructure and destabilize petrodollar
  - nharada 1y ago
    Oh yeah I get what you’re saying but is that a thing? Like CATL has had lines before that aren’t making a profit?
    - Qwertious 1y ago
      It's not a thing; people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - nextworddev 1y ago
        They have decent technology (which they stole a decent chunk) and cheat at the same time.. nothing to do with the west feeling insecurity. In fact, the west could benefit from some mobilizing around insecurity
      - tooltalk 1y ago
        > people are just stuck in the 2000s and think that China can't beat the West technologically and therefore must be cheating. We are talking since early 2010 and on. And it's pretty much what everyone says they are: China has been breaking every trade/IP laws/agreements -- forced IP transfer/IP theft, ban foreign competition, illegal state subsidies to overcapacity, etc to get to where they are in the EV battery market.
bryanlarsen 1y ago
CATL had a profit of $2.6B last quarter on sales of $15B. That indicates they're pricing well above cost rather than below it.
- tooltalk 1y ago
  dumping doesn't depend on profit or loss. Also the legal definition of dumping is less-than-the-"normal value." (see Article VI ANTI-DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES of GATT 1994). But then China is a non-market-economy, so none of these rules apply in a hypothetical anti-dumping case -- ie, China's local price, or "normal value" doesn't matter.
  - bryanlarsen 1y ago
    A normal value for a highly competitive commodity part like a battery is about 3% above cost. CATL charges over 20% above cost. So you might have an argument that CATL has monopoly pricing power and is gouging its customers. IOW that they're illegally charging too much, not that they are illegally charging too little.
    - tooltalk 1y ago
      Sure, that's not what a normal value is. As explained, the price level or the cost of manufacture in China, the exporting country, is completely irrelevant as their local price/cost of manufacturer is artificially propped up by illegal state subsidies or other anti-market tactics to cripple foreign competition past 15 years. Again, China is a non-market-economy. In those cases, trade regulators can use "undistorted" prices without gov't interference or use a market price in a similarly situated 3rd country as benchmark.
      - bryanlarsen 1y ago
        If that's your definition of a non-market economy, then no Western economy is either.

bmicraft 1y ago

That's plain wrong, they have not announced that price target anywhere. There is speculation that it could be there target internally for the long term, but there is basically zero chance they'll start at that price and no guarantees they'll ever reach it.

nharada 1y ago
You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...

grayrest 1y ago

> CATL is claiming mass production of their sodium-ion batteries starts in December, with a target price of $10/kWh. This got widely reported but there doesn't seem to be any source. I'll reference this video [1] to cover the claim along with a comparison to industry projections. Apologies for the video link but I don't have an article handy that addresses the topic as directly. [1] https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861 https://youtu.be/KjiqqafD_0w?t=861

nharada 1y ago
You're right, I can't find any primary sources for this number. Yahoo[1] reports this number and attributes it to Bloomberg NEF but I can't find an actual article from Bloomberg with this number, or any actual target number in it. [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-165059349.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-10-sodium-ion-battery-16505...