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how could they say with any certainty it is extinct? It is tiny.
by deadbabe 1y ago
how could they say with any certainty it is extinct? It is tiny.
- analog31 1y agoI'm a scientist, and I work in a setting where there are a lot of non-scientists including engineers, managers, etc. A word like "extinct" sounds like an absolute, and a rigorous statement would include a detailed disclaimer about the limitations of talking in absolute terms, such as "within the limits of our knowledge, and we could be wrong, yadda yadda." When talking amongst scientists, those disclaimers are unnecessary because scientific thinking is taken for granted. Thus we talk in abbreviated terms, for instance where "extinct" implies "extinct, with all of the usual disclaimers." But I think scientists have to remember that this is a habit, and most normal people don't get it. And then our words get filtered through the press. I think an article like this could include a brief working definition of "declared extinct" which would help reinforce the idea that what we sacrifice as the price of scientific knowledge, is absolute knowledge.
- swagmoose 1y agoI think I knew this deep down, but I am curious if there's "extinct (with the usual disclaimers)" and "extinct (it ain't comin back)". i.e. the Christmas Island Shrew vs. the Dodo
- JKCalhoun 1y agoMaybe the difference between the Dodo and the Christmas Island Shrew is 350 years. Which is to say, the certainty of the Dodo's extinction is related to how long we've not seen one. Every year that passes then without the shrew will be to underscore its extinction, I suppose. Sad.
- analog31 1y agoI have a feeling that it depends to some extent on the organism. It would be hard for a breeding pair of Dodo's to hide for very long, whereas a colony of little shrews could creep around in the bushes without notice. "Last seen on X date" would cover both cases.
- tanaros 1y ago> which would help reinforce the idea that what we sacrifice as the price of scientific knowledge, is absolute knowledge. I don’t think it is possible to have absolute knowledge of anything. Scientific knowledge is the best (only) thing we have.
- micromacrofoot 1y agowith a population this low it would be functionally extinct anyway, not enough genetic diversity
- duskwuff 1y agoAt 52 square miles, Christmas Island isn't terribly large either. And, given that shrews have a lifetime of perhaps a year or two and there's been no sightings in 40+ years, it seems unlikely that a stable breeding population has survived unnoticed.
- culi 1y agoWell it sounds like they replaced their native habitat with a phosphate mine. Seems like a wholesale displacement. Hard to imagine surviving not just your population hit but your entire ecosystem
- wartijn_ 1y agoYou’re either severely overestimating the size of the mines or underestimating the size of Christmas Island. On satellite images[0]you can see where there has been phosphate mining, but it’s also very clear that it hasn’t replaced the habitat of the shrew. [0] https://maps.app.goo.gl/3e55Y1Q3AvMSuccz6?g_st=ic https://maps.app.goo.gl/3e55Y1Q3AvMSuccz6?g_st=ic