It's contrived and breaks down pretty easily, but why isnt it more like this: - both wearing seatbelts and getting in an accident have a significant chance of

It's contrived and breaks down pretty easily, but why isnt it more like this: - both wearing seatbelts and getting in an accident have a significant chance of causing x - you are almost definitely going to get in an accident - are your chances of x greater or lesser given car accident while wearing seatbelt? I think your framing is correct (though it'd be better to just say were better off in general), but I haven't seen anyone give a convincing answer to that question in favor of the shots.