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Looks pretty good to me over 25 years. Not many safe/guaranteed investments that will reliably return 8% these days. And as utility rates will no doubt rise ove

Looks pretty good to me over 25 years. Not many safe/guaranteed investments that will reliably return 8% these days. And as utility rates will no doubt rise over time, savings in future years will be greater.

glxxyz 1y ago
Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.
- Ekaros 1y ago
  Which to me is funny, when the electricity prices will clearly not rise when there is solar energy production from said panels. But might in other times.
  - glxxyz 1y ago
    I think the argument is that on average people are buying heat pumps and EVs faster they are installing solar panels but it’s not completely convincing though, power stations can be added. Further north where I am solar can only ever be a small component of total electricity generation due to the dark snowy cloudy winter months with close to zero solar generation for weeks on end.
  - adrianN 1y ago
    Batteries for load shifting a few hours mitigate that quite a bit and are getting cheaper fast.
    - glxxyz 1y ago
      The issue for me with batteries is that in the summer I can produce in a day much more than I can use, and in winter I consume a lot and barely produce anything. This is where net metering steps in- I can ‘store’ all of my excess summer consumption in the grid in summer and get credit for it in winter. A cheaper smaller system right sized for summer consumption with a battery would have my second best option, but for me never showed any potential payback due to the fixed costs of installation and the extra battery costs.
      - adrianN 1y ago
        Net metering is of course nice for consumers but it’s not sustainable for the grid operators.
        glxxyz 1y ago
        It is for a fraction of consumers- power companies and governments are well aware of that.
        Reason077 1y ago
        Exactly. Not a sustainable/scalable policy.
        glxxyz 1y ago
        The point of my original post was that I’ve seen a much greater ROI on my own heatpump than solar, even though I don’t regret the solar installation. I wasn’t making any claims about sustainability/scalability of solar, just showing how it worked for me.
        Reason077 1y ago
        My comment was regarding net metering policy, not solar itself. Solar is great, and even better (for you) if you have net metering. But it’s not sustainable or scalable for utilities to keep offering net metering, and ultimately it creates wrong/distorted market signals: an incentive to generate more electricity when it’s abundant and to use more when it’s scarce.
    - brianwawok 1y ago
      I have never had a prime time surcharge so I can’t do that trick. Think it’s because my baseload here is nuclear.
- conradev 1y ago
  I got solar for my parents in 2021 and the price increases were pretty aggressive recently: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610
- thelastgallon 1y ago
  Residential electricity rates have risen fast across the US—more than 30 percent on average since 2020 and almost double the rate of inflation: https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soaring-and-will-rise-further-still/ https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soarin...
  - bluGill 1y ago
    Very regional though - my rates have not gone up.
    - thelastgallon 1y ago
      Electricity prices are going up nearly everywhere. Bitcoin and AI are a wealth transfer from everyone to the crypto/AI folks. Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That's being passed on to customers: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-elec...
      - geysersam 1y ago
        That doesn't make any sense. Bitcoin miners get wealth from people buying Bitcoin, not from electricity customers. Same for AI. It's a wealth transfer from electricity customers to electricity producers if anything. Most likely most of the increase is just temporary though. Electricity supply will increase to meet the sudden and unpredictable increase in demand.
  - Spivak 1y ago
    It will be interesting to see if this will make natural gas a more attractive source of residential heating as the price has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years. The push for electrification seems like it relies on us metaphorically drowning in excess cheap electricity and want somewhere for it to go but right now the opposite it happening.
    - 1y ago

glxxyz 1y ago

Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.

Ekaros 1y ago
Which to me is funny, when the electricity prices will clearly not rise when there is solar energy production from said panels. But might in other times.
- glxxyz 1y ago
  I think the argument is that on average people are buying heat pumps and EVs faster they are installing solar panels but it’s not completely convincing though, power stations can be added. Further north where I am solar can only ever be a small component of total electricity generation due to the dark snowy cloudy winter months with close to zero solar generation for weeks on end.
- adrianN 1y ago
  Batteries for load shifting a few hours mitigate that quite a bit and are getting cheaper fast.
  - glxxyz 1y ago
    The issue for me with batteries is that in the summer I can produce in a day much more than I can use, and in winter I consume a lot and barely produce anything. This is where net metering steps in- I can ‘store’ all of my excess summer consumption in the grid in summer and get credit for it in winter. A cheaper smaller system right sized for summer consumption with a battery would have my second best option, but for me never showed any potential payback due to the fixed costs of installation and the extra battery costs.
    - adrianN 1y ago
      Net metering is of course nice for consumers but it’s not sustainable for the grid operators.
      - glxxyz 1y ago
        It is for a fraction of consumers- power companies and governments are well aware of that.
        Reason077 1y ago
        Exactly. Not a sustainable/scalable policy.
        glxxyz 1y ago
        The point of my original post was that I’ve seen a much greater ROI on my own heatpump than solar, even though I don’t regret the solar installation. I wasn’t making any claims about sustainability/scalability of solar, just showing how it worked for me.
        Reason077 1y ago
        My comment was regarding net metering policy, not solar itself. Solar is great, and even better (for you) if you have net metering. But it’s not sustainable or scalable for utilities to keep offering net metering, and ultimately it creates wrong/distorted market signals: an incentive to generate more electricity when it’s abundant and to use more when it’s scarce.
  - brianwawok 1y ago
    I have never had a prime time surcharge so I can’t do that trick. Think it’s because my baseload here is nuclear.
conradev 1y ago
I got solar for my parents in 2021 and the price increases were pretty aggressive recently: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610
thelastgallon 1y ago
Residential electricity rates have risen fast across the US—more than 30 percent on average since 2020 and almost double the rate of inflation: https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soaring-and-will-rise-further-still/ https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soarin...
- bluGill 1y ago
  Very regional though - my rates have not gone up.
  - thelastgallon 1y ago
    Electricity prices are going up nearly everywhere. Bitcoin and AI are a wealth transfer from everyone to the crypto/AI folks. Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That's being passed on to customers: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-elec...
    - geysersam 1y ago
      That doesn't make any sense. Bitcoin miners get wealth from people buying Bitcoin, not from electricity customers. Same for AI. It's a wealth transfer from electricity customers to electricity producers if anything. Most likely most of the increase is just temporary though. Electricity supply will increase to meet the sudden and unpredictable increase in demand.
- Spivak 1y ago
  It will be interesting to see if this will make natural gas a more attractive source of residential heating as the price has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years. The push for electrification seems like it relies on us metaphorically drowning in excess cheap electricity and want somewhere for it to go but right now the opposite it happening.
  - 1y ago