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What happens if Trump decides to default on the debt? Could this be how he stops the election, or stops the vote count?

by testing22321 1y ago

typeofhuman 1y ago
I will bite... What are you talking about?
- testing22321 1y ago
  It seems likely he’s going to try to hold onto power indefinitely. His options are start a major war, default on the debt, ? Hold onto your hats
  - prewett 1y ago
    Neither defaulting on the debt or starting a major war are effective ways to hold on to power, sheesh. He already tried to hold on to power, so you could just look at how he tried last time, that's one of the typical strategies. The other main one is a military coup.
    - testing22321 1y ago
      Creating a global crisis is an excellent way to hold onto power. Not that they started it or want it to continue, and not that I think Zelenski is anything other than a hero, but the case in point is Ukraine not holding elections since the war started. When Zelenski told trump there have been no elections during the war trump, on camera, was delighted and said “very good”.
  - piva00 1y ago
    Another option is the modern authoritarian model, Competitive Authoritarianism [0] as deployed by Órban, Putin, etc. You castrate the media, and take control of major vehicles to tilt the balance in your favour in quasi-sham elections; accumulate power in the executive while keeping the remaining seats of power under the thumb of the branch: legislative gets installed with sycophants/acolytes, judiciary power is tamed/dimished and regime-adjacent judges installed. If you play this well you keep getting elected when elections happen and slowly twists more the sword into all democratic institutions. [0] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-new-competitive-authoritarianism/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-new-competit...
ecshafer 1y ago
What? Can you explain how you are getting from a to.... z here? He defaults on debt, and then the election goes away in 3 years?
- pjc50 1y ago
  Certainly triggering a default at a critical time in the election would result in nothing else being on the news for the remaining few weeks of the fragmenting United States, until such time as CA and NY can get their own currencies circulating.
  - ecshafer 1y ago
    By the constitution states are not allowed to issue currency. Triggering a default would lead to devaluation of bonds and probably currency, but why would it stop elections?
    - pjc50 1y ago
      If it gets to that point, the Federal govenrment will have ceased to operate as anything recognizable, and most of the finance industry is faced with two options: a) update the valuation of their assets, recognizing that they are instantly insolvent, cease trading, and lock their doors; b) continue operating "illegally" in the hope that some sort of order will materialize Option (a) causes all the non-cash economy in the US to stop functioning. The gold and silver bugs are, briefly, ecstatic - this is their moment. Everyone else who would rely on their debit or credit cards to buy food and gasoline, less so. The legal order that is supposed to maintain things like elections theoretically remains in place, but the rapid collapse in public order forces states to step in. You have elections to some thing called the "United States", but when most of its money has been rendered worthless, does it really exist any more? Essentially this is the "prepper" fantasy.
    - shortrounddev2 1y ago
      The federal government wipes its ass with the constitution every day, why shouldn't states do the same?
tmn 1y ago
No one knows what would happen. That is unprecedented. There would be mayhem in financial systems as all types of collateral is vaporized. All types of on paper net worth would collapse towards zero
- surgical_fire 1y ago
  Other countries defaulted in the past, so not exactly unprecedented. I am not saying it would be pretty or desirable, but by reading what happened to countries can give a notion.
  - piva00 1y ago
    It's be unprecedented for the foundation of the contemporary financial system. Argentina defaulting on their debt is very different than a country which every other country, and their banks hold bonds from since it's deemed the safest investment possible. It would eliminate the notion of the USD as the basis of foreign trade across the world, almost all of the finance system is supported by the USD being the safest investment available.
snowwrestler 1y ago
Defaulting on U.S. Treasury payments would cause a lot of economic stress around the globe. But so did the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID pandemic, and we held presidential elections both those years.
mlsu 1y ago
He already has. Firing Jerome Powell and pushing rates lower, in spite of reality on the ground, is effectively a form of soft default. (That, plus the laundry list of other things, which is too long to fit into a single HN comment) The US will never stop paying its obligations. But driving away investment by breaking promises abroad and eroding political stability at home very much will cause the trust in the USD as an ongoing institution to evaporate. Sure, the US still pays its bonds on time in USD, but what is USD worth when the US cannot honor its trade obligations, cannot honor its diplomatic obligations, cannot be relied on as a stable partner? It will be very scary when the US stops being the dominant financial system. So much of the US political economy (and more fundamentally, our way of life) depends on it.
- testing22321 1y ago
  Do you mean Americans way of life, or everyone’s?
  - mlsu 1y ago
    Yes, speaking from USA perspective. For everyone else, some win some lose I'm sure.
    - mainecoder 1y ago
      as long as the military is there there is no need to worry because who decides which debt gets paid who enforces this financial rule, who makes the rule by what power?
- overtomanu 1y ago
  This is what is happening a bit now, USD is being sold and gold is being brought by various central banks

What happens if Trump decides to default on the debt? Could this be how he stops the election, or stops the vote count?

typeofhuman 1y ago

I will bite... What are you talking about?

testing22321 1y ago
It seems likely he’s going to try to hold onto power indefinitely. His options are start a major war, default on the debt, ? Hold onto your hats
- prewett 1y ago
  Neither defaulting on the debt or starting a major war are effective ways to hold on to power, sheesh. He already tried to hold on to power, so you could just look at how he tried last time, that's one of the typical strategies. The other main one is a military coup.
  - testing22321 1y ago
    Creating a global crisis is an excellent way to hold onto power. Not that they started it or want it to continue, and not that I think Zelenski is anything other than a hero, but the case in point is Ukraine not holding elections since the war started. When Zelenski told trump there have been no elections during the war trump, on camera, was delighted and said “very good”.
- piva00 1y ago
  Another option is the modern authoritarian model, Competitive Authoritarianism [0] as deployed by Órban, Putin, etc. You castrate the media, and take control of major vehicles to tilt the balance in your favour in quasi-sham elections; accumulate power in the executive while keeping the remaining seats of power under the thumb of the branch: legislative gets installed with sycophants/acolytes, judiciary power is tamed/dimished and regime-adjacent judges installed. If you play this well you keep getting elected when elections happen and slowly twists more the sword into all democratic institutions. [0] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-new-competitive-authoritarianism/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-new-competit...

ecshafer 1y ago

What? Can you explain how you are getting from a to.... z here? He defaults on debt, and then the election goes away in 3 years?

pjc50 1y ago
Certainly triggering a default at a critical time in the election would result in nothing else being on the news for the remaining few weeks of the fragmenting United States, until such time as CA and NY can get their own currencies circulating.
- ecshafer 1y ago
  By the constitution states are not allowed to issue currency. Triggering a default would lead to devaluation of bonds and probably currency, but why would it stop elections?
  - pjc50 1y ago
    If it gets to that point, the Federal govenrment will have ceased to operate as anything recognizable, and most of the finance industry is faced with two options: a) update the valuation of their assets, recognizing that they are instantly insolvent, cease trading, and lock their doors; b) continue operating "illegally" in the hope that some sort of order will materialize Option (a) causes all the non-cash economy in the US to stop functioning. The gold and silver bugs are, briefly, ecstatic - this is their moment. Everyone else who would rely on their debit or credit cards to buy food and gasoline, less so. The legal order that is supposed to maintain things like elections theoretically remains in place, but the rapid collapse in public order forces states to step in. You have elections to some thing called the "United States", but when most of its money has been rendered worthless, does it really exist any more? Essentially this is the "prepper" fantasy.
  - shortrounddev2 1y ago
    The federal government wipes its ass with the constitution every day, why shouldn't states do the same?

tmn 1y ago

No one knows what would happen. That is unprecedented. There would be mayhem in financial systems as all types of collateral is vaporized. All types of on paper net worth would collapse towards zero

surgical_fire 1y ago
Other countries defaulted in the past, so not exactly unprecedented. I am not saying it would be pretty or desirable, but by reading what happened to countries can give a notion.
- piva00 1y ago
  It's be unprecedented for the foundation of the contemporary financial system. Argentina defaulting on their debt is very different than a country which every other country, and their banks hold bonds from since it's deemed the safest investment possible. It would eliminate the notion of the USD as the basis of foreign trade across the world, almost all of the finance system is supported by the USD being the safest investment available.

snowwrestler 1y ago

Defaulting on U.S. Treasury payments would cause a lot of economic stress around the globe. But so did the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID pandemic, and we held presidential elections both those years.

mlsu 1y ago

He already has. Firing Jerome Powell and pushing rates lower, in spite of reality on the ground, is effectively a form of soft default. (That, plus the laundry list of other things, which is too long to fit into a single HN comment) The US will never stop paying its obligations. But driving away investment by breaking promises abroad and eroding political stability at home very much will cause the trust in the USD as an ongoing institution to evaporate. Sure, the US still pays its bonds on time in USD, but what is USD worth when the US cannot honor its trade obligations, cannot honor its diplomatic obligations, cannot be relied on as a stable partner? It will be very scary when the US stops being the dominant financial system. So much of the US political economy (and more fundamentally, our way of life) depends on it.

testing22321 1y ago
Do you mean Americans way of life, or everyone’s?
- mlsu 1y ago
  Yes, speaking from USA perspective. For everyone else, some win some lose I'm sure.
  - mainecoder 1y ago
    as long as the military is there there is no need to worry because who decides which debt gets paid who enforces this financial rule, who makes the rule by what power?
overtomanu 1y ago
This is what is happening a bit now, USD is being sold and gold is being brought by various central banks