> It wants to build a Chinese-led system on the ruins of the old liberal trading order, one which will rival Mr Trump’s empire of tariffs. Already China has shi

> It wants to build a Chinese-led system on the ruins of the old liberal trading order, one which will rival Mr Trump’s empire of tariffs. Already China has shifted the geography of its trade: in the year to September its goods exports grew by over 8%, even as those to America fell by 27%. That's fine, but it's not just China and US here. The EU is also making moves. The reality is that it would be malfeasance for the steward classes in the EU and China to not at least try to replace the US in the face of the recent US missteps. So China and the EU will both be trying to be the reliable and responsible big dog. Which will most likely lead to some kind of multipolar world where the prestige and power of the US is greatly diminished. But it doesn't necessarily translate into automatic Sino-pax. Sino-pax is definitely one of the possible outcomes. It's even likely, but not a foregone conclusion. So their current moves and bets will very likely pay off, but maybe not as big as they think those moves and bets will pay off.