It provides an independent fact check on the media and propaganda. The media exaggreated the likelihood of dramatic events constantly so that you keep watching

It provides an independent fact check on the media and propaganda. The media exaggreated the likelihood of dramatic events constantly so that you keep watching, but this approach aligns the incentives of the predictions with reality not your attention. It offers actionable intelligence that is difficult to manipulate over time. When probabilities become misaligned with reality, others can take the opposite position to profit from the discrepancy. Maintaining an obviously high percentage inaccurate prediction of 80-90% would be extremely cost prohibitive. For example according to polymarket right now, Mamdani will be the next mayor of NY, no one really knows with any certainty when the shutdown will end, the risk of a major war with China and Taiwan remains low. The chances of a Ukraine ceasefire are also extremely low. Contrast this with YouTubers talking about Ukraine who’ve been discussing some game changing war technology that’s going to end the Ukraine war soon for the past years. If you followed them, you might have thought the war was about to end for the past few years.