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The smugglers must have a high tolerance for loss acceptance if this is their delivery route. I'd love to know more about the logistics on this. Searching for t

The smugglers must have a high tolerance for loss acceptance if this is their delivery route. I'd love to know more about the logistics on this. Searching for this topic just returns various sites with the same report. A headline from Fortune suggests these are hot air balloons, but the image in TFA does not indicate that at all. They mentioned 25 balloons at one time, so this is not a small operation. Do they have 25 separate teams waiting for the balloons, or is one or two receiving groups expected to locate them all? Inquiring minds want to know

mothballed 1y ago
Yeah the price differential isn't high enough to justify narco smuggler like loss rates. On the other hand, take a look at the price difference of cigarettes between Australia and Indonesia, like 20x. There must be a pretty insane volume of smuggling going on between those countries seperate by a short straight of Ocean, it would support narco submarine levels of sophistication.
- codyb 1y ago
  I don't know if this is true. A pack of cigarettes in Virginia costs... what 4 bucks? 5? Those Virginia taxed cigarettes are sold in NYC for 10 bucks a pack now or 1 dollar a loosey (a... friend told me). That's 2x on packs and 4x on looseys. That gives you a pretty healthy margin before busts could impact your profits. Presumably you're also buying them in bulk in Virginia for cheaper than the 4 or 5 dollar store price too. Cigarettes are probably a nickel a piece coming off the line?
  - avn2109 1y ago
    A nickel!?? Good heavens probably the whole pack full doesn't even cost a nickel to manufacture. Manufacturing cost per cigarette must surely be waaay under a penny. Disregarding marketing and distribution expenses of course.
- fy20 1y ago
  In Lithuania it's around €5 per pack, and in Belarus around €2. If you assume 20kg is 800 packs, then you are talking a few thousand profit per shipment. Minimum wage, after tax, in Lithuania is €700.
- LorenPechtel 1y ago
  Balloons rely on the wind, you could only do this where prevailing winds almost certainly put your balloon into some place you can retrieve it.
- ashanoko 1y ago
  Tabacco is nicotin juices and leaf cellulose dried. Could you extract the juices and then apply that concentrate to something similar at target location like hay?
  - quickthrowman 1y ago
    You can already buy concentrated liquid nicotine, it’s called e-liquid or vape juice. All you need is a heating element, no organic material required. 48mg/ml!
  - DonHopkins 1y ago
    You could dip blotter paper with colorful artwork in pure nicotine, and consume them like LSD. They'd also be easy to send through the normal post!
- ifwinterco 1y ago
  I don't know if it involves narco submarines but these is indeed a huge problem with smuggled cigarettes in Australia due to the extremely high tax making it very much worth the while of organised criminal gangs
- rstuart4133 1y ago
  There is an insane amount of smuggling of cigarettes going on in Australia. Currently about 50% of consumption, and rising. It's causing USA prohibition like effects. With criminal gangs distributing in charge of distribution, protection rackets are now common place. [0] Literally hundreds of tobacco shops burnt to the ground this year. So many that TV regularly features tobacco shop arsonists caught on CCTV spilling accelerant on their clothes, and setting fire to themselves. The build up of money is letting expanding their criminal enterprises into other areas, so we are seeing a corresponding rise in car crime, importation of guns, and smuggling in other areas, and some inventive stuff like using private ATM's for money laundering. The government is now trying a law enforcement push get control of it. But of course they were doing that before, so I presume more of the same will fail. [0] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-04/illegal-tobacco-is-a-deadly-10-billion-industry/105607186 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-04/illegal-tobacco-is-a-...
giorgioz 1y ago
I assume they let them fly at night and they have some form of GPS and way to communicate the data positions. The pickup team maybe just needs to shoot them down on top of a inhabited area.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- dylan604 1y ago
  Shooting them down with what? These things will fly at high altitudes. How do you find them at that altitude in the dark to shoot with what, a rifle? US military took more than one missile to shoot down the very much larger Chinese balloon. It's not as simple as you might be thinking
  - stickfigure 1y ago
    > These things will fly at high altitudes. That seems improbable? Lithuania is only a couple hundred miles across and these balloons are completely at the mercy of wind. I would expect the balloon owners want a quick hop over border security. Chasing them down over hundreds of miles of potentially private property sounds like more trouble than it would be worth.
    - kragen 1y ago
      Helium or hydrogen balloons are easier to fly at higb altitudes, but you might be right that shorter hops would be more controllable.
      - dylan604 1y ago
        What is shorter hops in this sense to you? If you make some sort of weather balloon where the balloon never bursts, yes, they will travel very far. If you use a cheaper balloon that does burst, they don't travel down range very far in comparison. As I posted previously, depending on the balloon/parachute/payload, our little "experiment" went just over 100+ miles. That seems fairly acceptable. You could start 50 miles away from the border, and the recovery team would also be 50 miles away from the border. That's a pretty good buffer from any security teams working border crossings.
Tade0 1y ago
I recall a friend of mine smoking cigarettes smuggled from Belarus back in 2006 costing 2,30PLN a pack, so less than €0,60 at the time. Considering how light the product was, that translated to ~€20 per kilogram, with about 20% of this figure being the cost of third rate tobacco stuffed into those cigarettes. The smell was distinctly foul, but he was happy with the bargain he got on them.
- MisterTea 1y ago
  If they are anything like Belomorkanal then they must be desperate. A Russian friend brought a carton back years ago claiming they were about $0.60 a pack. Man were they absolutely vile.
  - Tade0 1y ago
    You could say they were the 21th century version of those. Looked like a normal cigarette, smelled like sulfur and burnt tea leaves.
    - MisterTea 1y ago
      Another I forgot were these Chinese cigarettes a friend once bought which tasted and smelled like burning solder rosin flux. That was another one or two puff and toss.
LorenPechtel 1y ago
Depending on the terrain the loss rate might not be high. Put a cell phone in the package. Location tracking, find the phone. If they're dropping into ares with cell coverage and flat enough that they're likely reachable then you won't lose a lot. And if you're dropping into areas without coverage you put something like an inReach on the balloon, set to send out pings. And put an AirTag or the like in it because the balloon might land on the transmitter and block it. (I own an inReach, know it can send pings at 2 minute or 10 minute intervals, I've only used them to look up where I was once (the real reason I have it is the SOS button works pretty much anywhere and even if I couldn't push it S&R would look up the last ping) but the website was spot on to normal GPS accuracy. There are competitors but I do not know their capability.)
DonHopkins 1y ago
>They mentioned 25 balloons at one time, so this is not a small operation. Do they have 25 separate teams waiting for the balloons, or is one or two receiving groups expected to locate them all? Maybe the guy in the lawn chair with a BB gun got away.
ratelimitsteve 1y ago
ciagrettes are tobacco and paper. consider how dirt cheap those things are as raw materials when the price doesn't include sales tax or excise tax and doesn't account for the demand generated by addicts. In terms of just the cost of sourcing the materials and processing them into cigarettes you could probably afford to lose 90% of your product and still make money. As far as 25 balloons 25 teams, I think this is another r breeding strategy type of thing: inputs are dirt cheap so massive losses can be tolerated, and 25 balloons being tracked means there have to be at least 25 officers chasing each balloon in order to arrest the smuggler picking them up, but one smuggler successfully retrieving one balloon ends the day with more money than he started. I think it's designed to exploit the extremely asymmetric costs associated with tying some cigarettes to a balloon when compared to the cost of tracking a balloon across europe and arresting whoever receives it. tldr - you're absolutely right, the difference between the price of the raw materials in a cigarette and the price of the actual cigarette means they can tolerate extreme losses and still make money.

mothballed 1y ago

Yeah the price differential isn't high enough to justify narco smuggler like loss rates. On the other hand, take a look at the price difference of cigarettes between Australia and Indonesia, like 20x. There must be a pretty insane volume of smuggling going on between those countries seperate by a short straight of Ocean, it would support narco submarine levels of sophistication.

codyb 1y ago
I don't know if this is true. A pack of cigarettes in Virginia costs... what 4 bucks? 5? Those Virginia taxed cigarettes are sold in NYC for 10 bucks a pack now or 1 dollar a loosey (a... friend told me). That's 2x on packs and 4x on looseys. That gives you a pretty healthy margin before busts could impact your profits. Presumably you're also buying them in bulk in Virginia for cheaper than the 4 or 5 dollar store price too. Cigarettes are probably a nickel a piece coming off the line?
- avn2109 1y ago
  A nickel!?? Good heavens probably the whole pack full doesn't even cost a nickel to manufacture. Manufacturing cost per cigarette must surely be waaay under a penny. Disregarding marketing and distribution expenses of course.
fy20 1y ago
In Lithuania it's around €5 per pack, and in Belarus around €2. If you assume 20kg is 800 packs, then you are talking a few thousand profit per shipment. Minimum wage, after tax, in Lithuania is €700.
LorenPechtel 1y ago
Balloons rely on the wind, you could only do this where prevailing winds almost certainly put your balloon into some place you can retrieve it.
ashanoko 1y ago
Tabacco is nicotin juices and leaf cellulose dried. Could you extract the juices and then apply that concentrate to something similar at target location like hay?
- quickthrowman 1y ago
  You can already buy concentrated liquid nicotine, it’s called e-liquid or vape juice. All you need is a heating element, no organic material required. 48mg/ml!
- DonHopkins 1y ago
  You could dip blotter paper with colorful artwork in pure nicotine, and consume them like LSD. They'd also be easy to send through the normal post!
ifwinterco 1y ago
I don't know if it involves narco submarines but these is indeed a huge problem with smuggled cigarettes in Australia due to the extremely high tax making it very much worth the while of organised criminal gangs
rstuart4133 1y ago
There is an insane amount of smuggling of cigarettes going on in Australia. Currently about 50% of consumption, and rising. It's causing USA prohibition like effects. With criminal gangs distributing in charge of distribution, protection rackets are now common place. [0] Literally hundreds of tobacco shops burnt to the ground this year. So many that TV regularly features tobacco shop arsonists caught on CCTV spilling accelerant on their clothes, and setting fire to themselves. The build up of money is letting expanding their criminal enterprises into other areas, so we are seeing a corresponding rise in car crime, importation of guns, and smuggling in other areas, and some inventive stuff like using private ATM's for money laundering. The government is now trying a law enforcement push get control of it. But of course they were doing that before, so I presume more of the same will fail. [0] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-04/illegal-tobacco-is-a-deadly-10-billion-industry/105607186 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-04/illegal-tobacco-is-a-...

giorgioz 1y ago

I assume they let them fly at night and they have some form of GPS and way to communicate the data positions. The pickup team maybe just needs to shoot them down on top of a inhabited area.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
dylan604 1y ago
Shooting them down with what? These things will fly at high altitudes. How do you find them at that altitude in the dark to shoot with what, a rifle? US military took more than one missile to shoot down the very much larger Chinese balloon. It's not as simple as you might be thinking
- stickfigure 1y ago
  > These things will fly at high altitudes. That seems improbable? Lithuania is only a couple hundred miles across and these balloons are completely at the mercy of wind. I would expect the balloon owners want a quick hop over border security. Chasing them down over hundreds of miles of potentially private property sounds like more trouble than it would be worth.
  - kragen 1y ago
    Helium or hydrogen balloons are easier to fly at higb altitudes, but you might be right that shorter hops would be more controllable.
    - dylan604 1y ago
      What is shorter hops in this sense to you? If you make some sort of weather balloon where the balloon never bursts, yes, they will travel very far. If you use a cheaper balloon that does burst, they don't travel down range very far in comparison. As I posted previously, depending on the balloon/parachute/payload, our little "experiment" went just over 100+ miles. That seems fairly acceptable. You could start 50 miles away from the border, and the recovery team would also be 50 miles away from the border. That's a pretty good buffer from any security teams working border crossings.

Tade0 1y ago

I recall a friend of mine smoking cigarettes smuggled from Belarus back in 2006 costing 2,30PLN a pack, so less than €0,60 at the time. Considering how light the product was, that translated to ~€20 per kilogram, with about 20% of this figure being the cost of third rate tobacco stuffed into those cigarettes. The smell was distinctly foul, but he was happy with the bargain he got on them.

MisterTea 1y ago
If they are anything like Belomorkanal then they must be desperate. A Russian friend brought a carton back years ago claiming they were about $0.60 a pack. Man were they absolutely vile.
- Tade0 1y ago
  You could say they were the 21th century version of those. Looked like a normal cigarette, smelled like sulfur and burnt tea leaves.
  - MisterTea 1y ago
    Another I forgot were these Chinese cigarettes a friend once bought which tasted and smelled like burning solder rosin flux. That was another one or two puff and toss.

LorenPechtel 1y ago

Depending on the terrain the loss rate might not be high. Put a cell phone in the package. Location tracking, find the phone. If they're dropping into ares with cell coverage and flat enough that they're likely reachable then you won't lose a lot. And if you're dropping into areas without coverage you put something like an inReach on the balloon, set to send out pings. And put an AirTag or the like in it because the balloon might land on the transmitter and block it. (I own an inReach, know it can send pings at 2 minute or 10 minute intervals, I've only used them to look up where I was once (the real reason I have it is the SOS button works pretty much anywhere and even if I couldn't push it S&R would look up the last ping) but the website was spot on to normal GPS accuracy. There are competitors but I do not know their capability.)

DonHopkins 1y ago

>They mentioned 25 balloons at one time, so this is not a small operation. Do they have 25 separate teams waiting for the balloons, or is one or two receiving groups expected to locate them all? Maybe the guy in the lawn chair with a BB gun got away.

ratelimitsteve 1y ago

ciagrettes are tobacco and paper. consider how dirt cheap those things are as raw materials when the price doesn't include sales tax or excise tax and doesn't account for the demand generated by addicts. In terms of just the cost of sourcing the materials and processing them into cigarettes you could probably afford to lose 90% of your product and still make money. As far as 25 balloons 25 teams, I think this is another r breeding strategy type of thing: inputs are dirt cheap so massive losses can be tolerated, and 25 balloons being tracked means there have to be at least 25 officers chasing each balloon in order to arrest the smuggler picking them up, but one smuggler successfully retrieving one balloon ends the day with more money than he started. I think it's designed to exploit the extremely asymmetric costs associated with tying some cigarettes to a balloon when compared to the cost of tracking a balloon across europe and arresting whoever receives it. tldr - you're absolutely right, the difference between the price of the raw materials in a cigarette and the price of the actual cigarette means they can tolerate extreme losses and still make money.