> but it's a reasonable heuristic I dunno, I feel like the base rate fallacy [0] could easily become a factor... Especially if we don't even have an idea what

> but it's a reasonable heuristic I dunno, I feel like the base rate fallacy [0] could easily become a factor... Especially if we don't even have an idea what the false-positive or false-negative rates are yet, let alone true prevalence. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy