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Well people always assert that, but I don't think evidnece totally backs this up. Tesla stock went to around 200-250$ when they showed substained profit, growt
by panick21 1y ago
Well people always assert that, but I don't think evidnece totally backs this up.
Tesla stock went to around 200-250$ when they showed substained profit, growth and margin. And since then it has hovered around that number. I don't believe this initial surge was primarly FSD inspired.
FSD was part of it, because from a financial perspective its really pure margin. I believed if they developed a good level 2 system they could improve their per-car profitability by a significant number. I don't think 20-30% uptake was a crazy suggestion, and that would have been fincially significant. I didn't need FSD and all the fancy promises to think it was good financially.
So I think that 200$ mark was optimistic but not totally crazy. People had been saying the stock was overvalued at 50$ when I bought in. So I wanted to hold around that value and just wanted to see what would happen (I had already pulled out enough to cover my investment).
But then the strategy became worse in all aspect and they didn't make progress as fast as possible. The stock did reflect that, not going up anymore.
Where it became truely irrational is in 2024, where it was clear that company was perfomring worse, and many of its strategies hand not worked as well as expected but somehow the stock massively rallied since then and is now at peak.
I'm not sure FSD explains this pattern very well. I think the political angle might matter more. But I really can't explain it at all. So I have long since liquidiated.