4 ms·

Building a hype cycle based on terrifying people was a terrible idea

The AI hype cycle is built on a shaky foundation because no one wants it to succeed except for Silicon Valley. As soon as cracks are shown, people will be ruthless in cutting it down.

ben_w 1y ago
I've always found it a bit perplexing that people think the attempt to scare people is itself merely "hype". This might just be a "me" error, a typical mind fallacy: I mean, obviously everyone who thinks it could be part of the hype is necessarily saying that they would try to hype something that way, and obviously Elon Musk specifically tried to do exactly that ("summoning the demon" then funding and pivoting into multiple competing AI companies)… But to me? I'm interpreting the risk discussions fairly directly, literally, and seriously: the people who are most familiar with what they are doing, have no idea what they're doing, what the risks are, what the side-effects are, how the power dynamics will play out, and everything else. And half of them also think they're in a financial bubble.
- zerosizedweasle 1y ago
  I think the hype in the sense, 'ChatGPT 5 is already doing PhD level work', 'look it solved this unsolvable thing' - only for those to be immediately shown to be false. To some degree it's the comments about how next year AI will replace mid level engineers at companies like Meta. For sure there is an unknown, but a lot of it seems to be deliberately misleading.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    I'd count that as hype, sure, but it doesn't seem to be scaring people? Or at least, not the people whose fear is pertinent to investment decisions.
    - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
      No because the claims usually end up being demonstrably over hyped, but the fear is part of then aura of attempted inevitability / invincibility that they are trying to project. That is a huge part of the investment hype.
      - ben_w 1y ago
        I see, your fear is of a very different character than that of the circles I follow: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com https://ifanyonebuildsit.com
        zerosizedweasle 1y ago
        There's probably a huge disconnect between conversations we're both hearing.

The AI hype cycle is built on a shaky foundation because no one wants it to succeed except for Silicon Valley. As soon as cracks are shown, people will be ruthless in cutting it down.

ben_w 1y ago

I've always found it a bit perplexing that people think the attempt to scare people is itself merely "hype". This might just be a "me" error, a typical mind fallacy: I mean, obviously everyone who thinks it could be part of the hype is necessarily saying that they would try to hype something that way, and obviously Elon Musk specifically tried to do exactly that ("summoning the demon" then funding and pivoting into multiple competing AI companies)… But to me? I'm interpreting the risk discussions fairly directly, literally, and seriously: the people who are most familiar with what they are doing, have no idea what they're doing, what the risks are, what the side-effects are, how the power dynamics will play out, and everything else. And half of them also think they're in a financial bubble.

zerosizedweasle 1y ago
I think the hype in the sense, 'ChatGPT 5 is already doing PhD level work', 'look it solved this unsolvable thing' - only for those to be immediately shown to be false. To some degree it's the comments about how next year AI will replace mid level engineers at companies like Meta. For sure there is an unknown, but a lot of it seems to be deliberately misleading.
- ben_w 1y ago
  I'd count that as hype, sure, but it doesn't seem to be scaring people? Or at least, not the people whose fear is pertinent to investment decisions.
  - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
    No because the claims usually end up being demonstrably over hyped, but the fear is part of then aura of attempted inevitability / invincibility that they are trying to project. That is a huge part of the investment hype.
    - ben_w 1y ago
      I see, your fear is of a very different character than that of the circles I follow: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com https://ifanyonebuildsit.com
      - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
        There's probably a huge disconnect between conversations we're both hearing.