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I expect it to take a long time because they seems to be a long way off from achieving it. Their track record so far isn't great. They've consistently blown eve

I expect it to take a long time because they seems to be a long way off from achieving it. Their track record so far isn't great. They've consistently blown every timeline they've put forth, and by a lot. Remember, they said that they'd have a rapidly reusable launch system going by March 2013. In 2011, Musk said that he'd be sending humans to Mars sometime between 2021 and 2031, but it doesn't look like they're anywhere near being able to do that yet. Also remember that they started working on all of this in 2008. I mean, I could be wrong! But I don't think I am.

inglor_cz 1y ago
There is a saying that SpaceX turns the impossible into merely late. They have blown a lot of deadlines, but they also produced a very reliable and relatively cheap launcher which now underpins the majority of human space activity, which we should, in fairness, consider a huge achievement. And the Raptor engines look really good so far. Reliable engines are a huge must in space industry. I don't think they are getting stymied by reentry problems forever. Already the latest IFT looked a lot better than the first one.
- JohnFen 1y ago
  > There is a saying that SpaceX turns the impossible into merely late. That saying is in no way at odds with my assertion.
  - inglor_cz 1y ago
    True, and I apologize. Nevertheless, if we come back to the original assertion, I have one more argument against it. If you look at Starbase, it has grown absolutely huge. It started off as a small group of tents and now it is a massive industrial area, plus SpaceX is expanding their presence at Cap Canaveral as well. Which means that they have a strong incentive to turn Starship into something that makes money and can finance those structures. No one can subsidize such large scale efforts indefinitely, not even Musk. You can spend a lot of time at a drawing board, but once you cross into the industrial buildup phase, your expenses skyrocket (pun intended) and the schedule becomes tighter. So they either deliver, or shut the shop within much less than a decade.

inglor_cz 1y ago

There is a saying that SpaceX turns the impossible into merely late. They have blown a lot of deadlines, but they also produced a very reliable and relatively cheap launcher which now underpins the majority of human space activity, which we should, in fairness, consider a huge achievement. And the Raptor engines look really good so far. Reliable engines are a huge must in space industry. I don't think they are getting stymied by reentry problems forever. Already the latest IFT looked a lot better than the first one.

JohnFen 1y ago
> There is a saying that SpaceX turns the impossible into merely late. That saying is in no way at odds with my assertion.
- inglor_cz 1y ago
  True, and I apologize. Nevertheless, if we come back to the original assertion, I have one more argument against it. If you look at Starbase, it has grown absolutely huge. It started off as a small group of tents and now it is a massive industrial area, plus SpaceX is expanding their presence at Cap Canaveral as well. Which means that they have a strong incentive to turn Starship into something that makes money and can finance those structures. No one can subsidize such large scale efforts indefinitely, not even Musk. You can spend a lot of time at a drawing board, but once you cross into the industrial buildup phase, your expenses skyrocket (pun intended) and the schedule becomes tighter. So they either deliver, or shut the shop within much less than a decade.