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This is kinda a hilarious coincidence, because I just watched a podcast with Andrej Karpathy, the guy who was running their autopilot program back when the sage
by jimbo808 1y ago
This is kinda a hilarious coincidence, because I just watched a podcast with Andrej Karpathy, the guy who was running their autopilot program back when the sage "fully autonomous in one year" predictions kicked of their 15+ year long run (and counting).
These days he's moved on to predicting 10 years for AGI and is, I shit you not, citing his 15 year track record of making accurate predictions (timestamped link below if you want have a laugh).
https://youtu.be/lXUZvyajciY?si=3PyVM476W6k3n-DR&t=181 https://youtu.be/lXUZvyajciY?si=3PyVM476W6k3n-DR&t=181
- morkalork 1y agoSo, tacking on the 15x multiplier from his Tesla FSD prediction: AGI in 150 years. Yeah that actually sounds about right!
- estearum 1y agoDo we know that Karpathy was the one making those predictions? Musk is absolutely notorious for throwing completely made up and detached-from-reality deadlines onto his teams, including making public obligations to such.
- Fricken 1y agoKarpathy, the celebrity AI influencer with no relevant autonomous vehicle experience, was hired to make Elon's bad predictions look good. He was an active and willing component of the scam. I'm sure he was paid handsomely. Autopilot's first director, Sterling Anderson, was fired because he was not willing to go along with the scam.
- londons_explore 1y agoEvery time Elon made an FSD prediction on stage live, you could see Andrej wincing in the background. You could tell Andrej was going along with what hiss boss said, but didn't believe it himself.
- skeeter2020 1y agoI don't think that absolves him from any of the scorn though. In fact it might make his shortcoming even worse.
- ben_w 1y agoAbsolve? No. Even worse? Nah, the judgement of someone in their 20s should be assumed poor.
- mcmcmc 1y agoAnd yet VCs throw hundreds of millions of dollars at startup founders in their 20s every year
- geodel 1y agoYeah, because it works as law of probability not law of physics. So out of ten thousand immature 20s a dozen may be very good making something that generate lot of wealth and immaturity in those cases might be helping not hurting them.
- ben_w 1y agoThat reflects worse on the VCs than on the founders, IMO.
- mnky9800n 1y agoyou would think there could be a better way to do it.
- jimbo808 1y agoThere are many ways to do it. How good of a way it is depends on what the market rate is for a 20 something possible unicorn/probable dud. People in that age range sometimes have a nice set of traits like youthful self confidence and the energy levels needed to bust their ass and sell, along with the right amount insecurity that will drive them to need to prove themselves. When you combine this with the naivety and inexperience that lets you get a lopsided deal, with your experience that means that doesn’t happen to them after you, you end up in a situation where you can afford to have 10 or 20 duds between each winner. And it’s a lot of fun.
- senordevnyc 1y agoI mean this question in good faith, and with all due respect to Karpathy: is there any reason to give this guy any credence beyond his ability to teach about LLMs? The only interesting industry experience of his that I'm aware of is leading Tesla's AI division during the period where they decided on this disastrous and dangerous vision-only approach that has resulted in multiple deaths. That alone makes me think he's not only incompetent but unethical. Am I missing something?
- chronci739 1y ago> during the period where they decided on this disastrous and dangerous vision-only approach that has resulted in multiple deaths To be fair, it was a direct decision from Elon due to covid supply chain shortages of radar and ultrasonic sensors. Not from engineers (as is common at Elon companies) But Andrej deserves some of the blame because he was too busy sucking on the $TSLA stock teat to say anything
- fukka42 1y agoPretty sure musk was hell bent on Vision only before covid.
- daveguy 1y agoYes, the decision was definitely made well before covid. It's just that musk and fanboys couldn't stop crowing about it during the covid shortages because that temporarily made camera-only sensing look like a good idea.
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- tim333 1y agoIf you see him interviewed he seems to know what he's talking about more than most.
- chronci739 1y ago> the guy who was running their autopilot program back when the sage "fully autonomous in one year" predictions kicked of their 15+ year long run To be fair, if I’m being paid $10 million/year, I’ll make any damn prediction my boss tells me to make
- maxerickson 1y agoI mean, I probably would do too, but it doesn't exactly speak to the integrity of whatever is being said now.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- draw_down 1y ago[dead]
- dzhiurgis 1y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questionable_cause https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questionable_cause
- _hark 1y agoI don't recall Andrej making "next year!" claims, it was always Elon. I found Andrej's talks from that time to be circumspect and precise in describing their ideas and approach, and not engaging in timeline speculation.
- Geee 1y agoHe doesn't say that at all on the video. He refers to his experience in the industry in regards to other people making predictions. To be clear, he knows that FSD predictions were too optimistic, and that's why he says that AGI will take a decade at least. Almost everyone else in the industry is predicting AGI "soon", i.e. in 1 or 2 years.
- dawnerd 1y agoBut we still don’t have FSD despite whatever robotaxi is doing. We’re not getting AGI in a decade.
- CaptainOfCoit 1y agoSaying "We won't get X in N" is easy and not very interesting, what about answering "When will we get X?" instead?
- lossolo 1y agoThere are literally zero people who know the answer to that question, or even have an estimate that is based on anything more than a hunch, it could be one year, or it could be ten years or more.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> literally zero people who know the answer to that question But plenty willing to guess. Folks without domain expertise tend to average the experts' guesses without accounting for the condition of being willing to guess in the first place.
- jimbo808 1y agoIf someone averages only the guesses from this subset, they’re ignoring the conditional selection effect, that the dataset (the set of guesses) is biased by the very act of being willing to guess. So the "average of guesses" doesn't represent the true expert population, and ignores the conditional selection effect. There's also just the reality that most of these experts have a lot of skin in the game, and there's lots of pressure in this world to a true believer, so I'm not going to buy into it too much.
- WhitneyLand 1y agoOh come on. How many of us have been an engineer on a project and had to watch an exec make promises we knew were not reality? It also doesn’t necessarily mean he was a yes man. Often in these situations people spell out their confidence levels plainly and directly to such execs and it just bounces off. I’m also seeing below people suggesting he could have publicly voiced his concerns, but that probably wasn’t even a legal option for multiple reasons.
- auntienomen 1y agoI watched the same video. Karpathy isn't predicting AGI in 10 years. He's saying we won't have AGI in less than 10 years -- contrary to what industry boosters are promising -- and that what we end up with won't be some sort of god-in-a-box.