From An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem [0]: > Next, suppose I told you that most doctors get the same wrong answer on this problem – usually, only aro

From An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem [0]: > Next, suppose I told you that most doctors get the same wrong answer on this problem – usually, only around 15% of doctors get it right. (“Really? 15%? Is that a real number, or an urban legend based on an Internet poll?” It’s a real number. See Casscells, Schoenberger, and Grayboys 1978; Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995; and many other studies. It’s a surprising result which is easy to replicate, so it’s been extensively replicated.) [0] https://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes https://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes