It would be a shit winter for europe (bits of it) for sure. But for contracts, that would be "Force Majeure" and would be on Russia as the supplier in most case

It would be a shit winter for europe (bits of it) for sure. But for contracts, that would be "Force Majeure" and would be on Russia as the supplier in most cases. Absent actual war with europe, tearing up a contract? Thats sovereign risk territory. Next time you draw one up, expect a consequence. I'm probably blinding myself to the cases where Europe walks off things before a contractual deadline and so Europe incurs the consequences. I tend to think thats what this 2028 thing IS: avoidance of the commercial risk side.