3 ms·
Color me skeptical. We're running into the speed of light when it comes to transistor size, and the parallelism that made neural nets take off is running into p
by username223 1y ago
Color me skeptical. We're running into the speed of light when it comes to transistor size, and the parallelism that made neural nets take off is running into power demands. Where do the exponential hardware gains come from? Optimizing the software by 2x or 4x happens only once. Then there's the other side: if Moore's Law works too well, local models will be good enough for most tasks, and these companies won't be able to do the SaaS thing.
It seems to me like models' capability scales logarithmically with size and wattage, making them the rare piece of software that can counteract Moore's Law. That doesn't seem like a way to make a trillion dollars.
- throwaway290 1y agoOne improvement is from scraping and stealing better quality IP to train on. And they can just ride Moore's law until they profit then lobby governments to require licenses for fast GPUs because of national security.