4 ms·

i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? ple

i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know.

throwaway290 1y ago
here's another trend: every time a person is on this hype bandwagon ask them how much are they invested in nvidia/ms/openai/etc I am not invested in anything except popcorn to watch it burst;)
- almostgotcaught 1y ago
  But see that's exactly my point - I am invested so actually I don't go around "talking my book" but you have zero skin in the game so your opinion matters about as much as Bob down at the bar watching the game on TV.
  - throwaway290 1y ago
    If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.
    - almostgotcaught 1y ago
      I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.
      - throwaway290 1y ago
        you are taking your book by implying all the naysayers are secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype. let's see how long copium lasts.
        almostgotcaught 1y ago
        > secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype that's literally the exact opposite of what i'm saying - literally read my responce to comments up chain.
        throwaway290 1y ago
        Interesting > i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know. To me people with short positions likely be bending the truth. To you they are honest. Funny There's a reason why investing must be declared in many situations. and it is because they are a conflict of interest not proof of honesty
        almostgotcaught 1y ago
        Do people have literally any idea what they're saying when they write these quippy responses? > conflict of interest not proof of honesty What exactly do you think disclosing a conflict of interest is if not honesty...............
        throwaway290 1y ago
        Disclosing conflict of interest is not making you honest, it simply lets people know you have reasons to bend the truth That's the reason in many cases disclosure is mandatory and not disclosing it is illegal. To let people know to take it with a grain of salt. True honesty = no conflict of interest. Judging things for what they are not what bucks they can make you if you spin it right
        almostgotcaught 1y ago
        > True honesty = no conflict of interest Lol bro you're making up the definitions the definition just to suit your weird perspective.
lbreakjai 1y ago
That's a dishonest argument. For a short to work, you need to be right about the direction _and_ the timing. Being right too soon amounts to being wrong, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- almostgotcaught 1y ago
  > market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.
  - Attrecomet 1y ago
    Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. What we can do is make sure we're not overextended on the bubble participants, but that's about it. No amount of hype from your side can make it a non-bubble market when OpenAI and other companies make wild and impossible to fulfill promises for infrastructure buildup that rely on vague promises of circular money lending between AI SaaS and infra companies.
    - almostgotcaught 1y ago
      > Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. "The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable". Makes sense.
      - smsm42 1y ago
        Yes, it does. You may know what there would be realignment, but you don't know where or how, and may not possess the professional knowledge and resources required to profit from it directly. The known part is general, the unknown part is specific and time-dependent.
leobg 1y ago
> Often someone pronounces his propositions with such confident and inflexible defiance that he seems to have entirely laid aside all concern for error. A bet disconcerts him. Sometimes he reveals that he is persuaded enough for one ducat but not for ten. For he would happily bet one, but at ten he suddenly becomes aware of what he had not previously noticed, namely that it is quite possible that he has erred. —Kant, Critique of Pure Reason
- almostgotcaught 1y ago
  yes this is exactly my strategy in getting people to really reveal the strength of their beliefs :)

i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know.

throwaway290 1y ago

here's another trend: every time a person is on this hype bandwagon ask them how much are they invested in nvidia/ms/openai/etc I am not invested in anything except popcorn to watch it burst;)

almostgotcaught 1y ago
But see that's exactly my point - I am invested so actually I don't go around "talking my book" but you have zero skin in the game so your opinion matters about as much as Bob down at the bar watching the game on TV.
- throwaway290 1y ago
  If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.
  - almostgotcaught 1y ago
    I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.
    - throwaway290 1y ago
      you are taking your book by implying all the naysayers are secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype. let's see how long copium lasts.
      - almostgotcaught 1y ago
        > secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype that's literally the exact opposite of what i'm saying - literally read my responce to comments up chain.
        throwaway290 1y ago
        Interesting > i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know. To me people with short positions likely be bending the truth. To you they are honest. Funny There's a reason why investing must be declared in many situations. and it is because they are a conflict of interest not proof of honesty
        almostgotcaught 1y ago
        Do people have literally any idea what they're saying when they write these quippy responses? > conflict of interest not proof of honesty What exactly do you think disclosing a conflict of interest is if not honesty...............
        throwaway290 1y ago
        Disclosing conflict of interest is not making you honest, it simply lets people know you have reasons to bend the truth That's the reason in many cases disclosure is mandatory and not disclosing it is illegal. To let people know to take it with a grain of salt. True honesty = no conflict of interest. Judging things for what they are not what bucks they can make you if you spin it right
        almostgotcaught 1y ago
        > True honesty = no conflict of interest Lol bro you're making up the definitions the definition just to suit your weird perspective.

lbreakjai 1y ago

That's a dishonest argument. For a short to work, you need to be right about the direction _and_ the timing. Being right too soon amounts to being wrong, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

almostgotcaught 1y ago
> market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.
- Attrecomet 1y ago
  Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. What we can do is make sure we're not overextended on the bubble participants, but that's about it. No amount of hype from your side can make it a non-bubble market when OpenAI and other companies make wild and impossible to fulfill promises for infrastructure buildup that rely on vague promises of circular money lending between AI SaaS and infra companies.
  - almostgotcaught 1y ago
    > Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. "The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable". Makes sense.
    - smsm42 1y ago
      Yes, it does. You may know what there would be realignment, but you don't know where or how, and may not possess the professional knowledge and resources required to profit from it directly. The known part is general, the unknown part is specific and time-dependent.

leobg 1y ago

> Often someone pronounces his propositions with such confident and inflexible defiance that he seems to have entirely laid aside all concern for error. A bet disconcerts him. Sometimes he reveals that he is persuaded enough for one ducat but not for ten. For he would happily bet one, but at ten he suddenly becomes aware of what he had not previously noticed, namely that it is quite possible that he has erred. —Kant, Critique of Pure Reason

almostgotcaught 1y ago
yes this is exactly my strategy in getting people to really reveal the strength of their beliefs :)