4 ms·

The Next Big Consumer Application Will Possibly Not Come From An Accelerator

34 points by Ataub24 14y ago

tomasien 14y ago
The only way it comes from an accelerator/incubator is if it built there, a-la Reddit from YC. Reddit is quickly becoming something that should fit the list at the beginning of this post (it's blowing up) and it was built during YC's first class. However, the odds of say, Twitter, joining an incubator as they were blowing up seems unlikely.
- Ataub24 14y ago
  Yea- it's at the end of the post with other YC consumer apps that are mainstream...
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
yesimahuman 14y ago
I would say this is more a function of the improbability of social products becoming mainstream than anything else. I don't think there is enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
finkin1 14y ago
I think going through an accelerator/incubator is seen as sort of a quick path to success. They are short. You can get decent press right away. Great products often require much more time, thought, and energy than accelerators/incubators allow for. YC is definitely one of the best.
bmr 14y ago
1957: Future NBA superstars are unlikely to be black.
mwww 14y ago
I think the reason might be that people who are able to build "the next big consumer app" just don't need an accelerator to start building. Just like Steve Jobs didn't need an MBA from Harvard in order to build Apple.
wilfra 14y ago
YC is the Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, MIT and Caltech of accelerators, all rolled into one. But that doesn't mean startups who can't get into YC are wasting their time going through other accelerators anymore than students who can't get into S/H/Y/P/M/C are wasting their time going to Berkeley or Cal State Stanislaus or wherever they can get accepted. Ya, they'll have a lower chance of success, but there will still be guys who go to liberal arts colleges in Oregon - and dropout after a year - who change the World.
mattmanser 14y ago
The guy's just picked random companies that supports his point, most of them pre-incubator and made some silly conclusion out of it. But of course YC doesn't count. Even though it was the first incubator by a couple of years. So of course has had the first successes. Coincidence perhaps? Why is anyone upvoting this?
- Ataub24 14y ago
  Yes coincidence. I have no affiliation with YC. Okay so take the biggest consumer apps in the past 5 years- Instagram, Spotify, Pinterest, foursquare, tumblr. They all pass the smell test. I threw in FB, Youtube, Twitter (on the bubble of pre/post accelerator), and a few others...
- mammalfriend 14y ago
  YC is by no means the first incubator. There were hundreds in the late 90's in silicon valley. Lots of junk, and few that turned out big businesses. Some of those big businesses failed in the .com crash simply because the capital markets imploded (and others because their business had been over-valued).
- Ataub24 14y ago
  ALSO- not sure if you know, but there were incubators and accelerators pre-2005 (year yc started)...
zacharycohn 14y ago
1. Correlation != Causation. 2. You just picked random companies that support your point. 3. I don't understand the logic behind "accelerators slow you down." Most accelerators encourage you to do a ton of customer validation and to pivot - or ditch your idea completely - when necessary. By maintaining a fast paced environment with a lot of mentors around, they help you move faster, not slower.
- Ataub24 14y ago
  Have you gone through any accelerator programs? From some friends I hear the mentorship can very much slow you down- constant meetings. Maybe they just did it wrong, but I hear accelerator programs can slow you down in certain scenarios. Company's are not random. They are mainstream consumer apps. The next big consumer app = mainstream. Does that not make sense?
  - adaml_623 14y ago
    So you haven't been through an accelerator either?
    - Ataub24 14y ago
      I'm a mentor for one. But haven't gone through as a startup
      - adaml_623 14y ago
        As a mentor though you can tune your interaction with a company to not slow them down with meetings right? Get them to execute on an idea and build up momentum with that execution and THEN if necessary pivot and iterate. Or is your point that accelerator programs are aimed at companies in a particular stage and consumer apps don't need help through that stage. Surely the programs aren't that long and the next big thing could easily benefit from many of the benefits like networking and exposure?
        14y ago
ig1 14y ago
Lets take a more scientific look at the YC generation of accelerators (which significantly differed from earlier incubators). Since 2008 there have been only six consumer startups founded that have hit the billion dollar valuation mark: Instagram, Pinterest, Dropbox, Evernote, Groupon and AirBnB (you might choose to exclude Dropbox and Evernote from the consumer market). Two of them are from YC, and Pinterest was founded by a YC alumni.
- ig1 14y ago
  (correction: AirBnB was actually founded in 2007)
interg12 14y ago
This article doesn't really make a strong case for anything, it just states the title as though its true.
jpdoctor 14y ago
Original title: The Next Big Consumer Application Will Possibly Not Coming From An Accelerator Linkbait title: The Next Big Consumer Application Is Most Likely Not Coming From An Accelerator GMAFB. Edit: Title changed, blood pressure returning to normal. Thanks mods.
- Ataub24 14y ago
  read comments. it changed because of feedback :)
nchlswu 14y ago
1 - what's the proportion of incubators/accelerator companies are pursuing consumer applications? 2 - it's very easy to pick home run successes that are rare to begin with. It's relatively easy to crunch numbers to give the number of successes that come out of an accelerator. It doesn't make sense to cherry pick those successes to be compared to let alone conclude that they will essentially reduce your chances. I'd guess that the odds about the same between accelerator and non/accelerators wrt the success the author is talking about. 3 - I don't think the proposition makes much sense to begin with given how accelerators are so trendy and may be of questionable quality. A note: this is my anecdotal observation, I haven't taken a look at incubators/accelerators in detail. 4 - Has anyone done any investigative work on where accelerator alumni have gone? There are many other benefits to incubators that can't be quantified by a binary outcome. I'd guess that in a good incubator (like YC), alumni are on average, better off, for a variety of reasons

34 points by Ataub24 14y ago

The only way it comes from an accelerator/incubator is if it built there, a-la Reddit from YC. Reddit is quickly becoming something that should fit the list at the beginning of this post (it's blowing up) and it was built during YC's first class. However, the odds of say, Twitter, joining an incubator as they were blowing up seems unlikely.

Ataub24 14y ago
Yea- it's at the end of the post with other YC consumer apps that are mainstream...

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

yesimahuman 14y ago

I would say this is more a function of the improbability of social products becoming mainstream than anything else. I don't think there is enough data to draw any conclusions yet.

finkin1 14y ago

I think going through an accelerator/incubator is seen as sort of a quick path to success. They are short. You can get decent press right away. Great products often require much more time, thought, and energy than accelerators/incubators allow for. YC is definitely one of the best.

bmr 14y ago

1957: Future NBA superstars are unlikely to be black.

mwww 14y ago

I think the reason might be that people who are able to build "the next big consumer app" just don't need an accelerator to start building. Just like Steve Jobs didn't need an MBA from Harvard in order to build Apple.

wilfra 14y ago

YC is the Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, MIT and Caltech of accelerators, all rolled into one. But that doesn't mean startups who can't get into YC are wasting their time going through other accelerators anymore than students who can't get into S/H/Y/P/M/C are wasting their time going to Berkeley or Cal State Stanislaus or wherever they can get accepted. Ya, they'll have a lower chance of success, but there will still be guys who go to liberal arts colleges in Oregon - and dropout after a year - who change the World.

mattmanser 14y ago

The guy's just picked random companies that supports his point, most of them pre-incubator and made some silly conclusion out of it. But of course YC doesn't count. Even though it was the first incubator by a couple of years. So of course has had the first successes. Coincidence perhaps? Why is anyone upvoting this?

Ataub24 14y ago
Yes coincidence. I have no affiliation with YC. Okay so take the biggest consumer apps in the past 5 years- Instagram, Spotify, Pinterest, foursquare, tumblr. They all pass the smell test. I threw in FB, Youtube, Twitter (on the bubble of pre/post accelerator), and a few others...
mammalfriend 14y ago
YC is by no means the first incubator. There were hundreds in the late 90's in silicon valley. Lots of junk, and few that turned out big businesses. Some of those big businesses failed in the .com crash simply because the capital markets imploded (and others because their business had been over-valued).
Ataub24 14y ago
ALSO- not sure if you know, but there were incubators and accelerators pre-2005 (year yc started)...

zacharycohn 14y ago

1. Correlation != Causation. 2. You just picked random companies that support your point. 3. I don't understand the logic behind "accelerators slow you down." Most accelerators encourage you to do a ton of customer validation and to pivot - or ditch your idea completely - when necessary. By maintaining a fast paced environment with a lot of mentors around, they help you move faster, not slower.

Ataub24 14y ago
Have you gone through any accelerator programs? From some friends I hear the mentorship can very much slow you down- constant meetings. Maybe they just did it wrong, but I hear accelerator programs can slow you down in certain scenarios. Company's are not random. They are mainstream consumer apps. The next big consumer app = mainstream. Does that not make sense?
- adaml_623 14y ago
  So you haven't been through an accelerator either?
  - Ataub24 14y ago
    I'm a mentor for one. But haven't gone through as a startup
    - adaml_623 14y ago
      As a mentor though you can tune your interaction with a company to not slow them down with meetings right? Get them to execute on an idea and build up momentum with that execution and THEN if necessary pivot and iterate. Or is your point that accelerator programs are aimed at companies in a particular stage and consumer apps don't need help through that stage. Surely the programs aren't that long and the next big thing could easily benefit from many of the benefits like networking and exposure?
      - 14y ago

ig1 14y ago

Lets take a more scientific look at the YC generation of accelerators (which significantly differed from earlier incubators). Since 2008 there have been only six consumer startups founded that have hit the billion dollar valuation mark: Instagram, Pinterest, Dropbox, Evernote, Groupon and AirBnB (you might choose to exclude Dropbox and Evernote from the consumer market). Two of them are from YC, and Pinterest was founded by a YC alumni.

ig1 14y ago
(correction: AirBnB was actually founded in 2007)

interg12 14y ago

This article doesn't really make a strong case for anything, it just states the title as though its true.

jpdoctor 14y ago

Original title: The Next Big Consumer Application Will Possibly Not Coming From An Accelerator Linkbait title: The Next Big Consumer Application Is Most Likely Not Coming From An Accelerator GMAFB. Edit: Title changed, blood pressure returning to normal. Thanks mods.

Ataub24 14y ago
read comments. it changed because of feedback :)

nchlswu 14y ago

1 - what's the proportion of incubators/accelerator companies are pursuing consumer applications? 2 - it's very easy to pick home run successes that are rare to begin with. It's relatively easy to crunch numbers to give the number of successes that come out of an accelerator. It doesn't make sense to cherry pick those successes to be compared to let alone conclude that they will essentially reduce your chances. I'd guess that the odds about the same between accelerator and non/accelerators wrt the success the author is talking about. 3 - I don't think the proposition makes much sense to begin with given how accelerators are so trendy and may be of questionable quality. A note: this is my anecdotal observation, I haven't taken a look at incubators/accelerators in detail. 4 - Has anyone done any investigative work on where accelerator alumni have gone? There are many other benefits to incubators that can't be quantified by a binary outcome. I'd guess that in a good incubator (like YC), alumni are on average, better off, for a variety of reasons