5 ms·

Marshall Brain has some interesting ideas, and I actually agree that there might be some disruption from lots of jobs getting roboticized. That said, Manna is c

Marshall Brain has some interesting ideas, and I actually agree that there might be some disruption from lots of jobs getting roboticized. That said, Manna is completely implausible. He takes some trends in political correctness, like banning smoking, to a ridiculous distopian degree of somehow justifying prison for almost every human because they can't find jobs. I don't think there is an upper bound on the number of people working in creative fields. It is a question of how fast the people can move to them.

sho 18y ago
Well, I agree, but I don't think he meant Manna to be taken as a realistic story - more like a hypothetical exploration of extreme best-case and worst-case scenarios. I found it pretty interesting and certainly thought-provoking. I'd need a defintion of what a "creative field" is before I agreed with you on the second paragraph, but definitely concur with the general point - people will adapt, new industries will spring up. The robotic revolution might be more jarring than most but yes, we'll survive, and personally I can't wait.
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  Creative endeavors include making music, books, plays, film, code, and stuff for etsy.
  - queensnake 18y ago
    Would you want to read/watch anything created by Beth or whatever her name was, in the video?
    - noonespecial 18y ago
      If "Beth" spent 10,000 hours honing a creative craft instead of slogging away in a frigging box packing line, then maybe yes indeed. The "Beths" of the world may turn out to have been a great lost human potential suddenly liberated from manual labor by robots. Instead of a bunch of Beths sitting around lamenting the loss of factory jobs, in a generation there will be no Beths at all, they'll all be JJ Abrams instead.
gravitycop 18y ago
I don't think there is an upper bound on the number of people working in creative fields. What proportion of the world's chimpanzees work in creative fields? You don't think that humans would be in competition with AI's in the creative marketplace of the future?
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  Huh? At best, animals in the wild are equivalent to humans subsisting on nature. That life is hard, and you don't have time for much else.
  - gravitycop 18y ago
    animals in the wild No. Chimpanzees. Their intelligence and creativity are just below those of humans. They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields. http://images.google.com/images?q=bedtime+for+bonzo http://images.google.com/images?q=bedtime+for+bonzo What proportion of them alive today work in creative fields in today's society? today in the future chimps < humans humans < AI chimps:humans::humans:AI http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analogy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analogy
    - jerf 18y ago
      "They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields." No, they don't. To compete, they must be in the same market. Chimps aren't in the same market as humans until you face a serious choice between Tom Hanks and a chimpanzee for your next dramatic role. Frankly, "we have AIs that can build the next Casablanca" is on the other side of the singularity. There's so many possibilities at that point that we can't speculate. "Humans are reduced to twiddling their thumbs" is only one possibility of many, and I'd rate it pretty low for a number of reasons.
      - gravitycop 18y ago
        >> They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields. > No, they don't. To compete, they must be in the same market. Chimpanzees create works of fine art: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+painting http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+painting They compete against human artists for prestige, and their works command sums of money. Chimpanzees perform in dramatic roles in movies: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+movie http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+movie http://images.google.com/images?q=chimp+bj+bear http://images.google.com/images?q=chimp+bj+bear Chimpanzees provide spectacle entertainment for paying customers by living in zoos: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimps+zoo http://images.google.com/images?q=chimps+zoo Perhaps humans, someday, will be living in zoos, providing spectacle entertainment for paying customers (AI) who vastly outclass them in terms of intelligence and creativity. Perhaps these humans will occasionally be given a role in a movie, and perhaps their "fine art works" will be commoditized based on their novelty value.

sho 18y ago

Well, I agree, but I don't think he meant Manna to be taken as a realistic story - more like a hypothetical exploration of extreme best-case and worst-case scenarios. I found it pretty interesting and certainly thought-provoking. I'd need a defintion of what a "creative field" is before I agreed with you on the second paragraph, but definitely concur with the general point - people will adapt, new industries will spring up. The robotic revolution might be more jarring than most but yes, we'll survive, and personally I can't wait.

ivankirigin 18y ago
Creative endeavors include making music, books, plays, film, code, and stuff for etsy.
- queensnake 18y ago
  Would you want to read/watch anything created by Beth or whatever her name was, in the video?
  - noonespecial 18y ago
    If "Beth" spent 10,000 hours honing a creative craft instead of slogging away in a frigging box packing line, then maybe yes indeed. The "Beths" of the world may turn out to have been a great lost human potential suddenly liberated from manual labor by robots. Instead of a bunch of Beths sitting around lamenting the loss of factory jobs, in a generation there will be no Beths at all, they'll all be JJ Abrams instead.

gravitycop 18y ago

I don't think there is an upper bound on the number of people working in creative fields. What proportion of the world's chimpanzees work in creative fields? You don't think that humans would be in competition with AI's in the creative marketplace of the future?

ivankirigin 18y ago
Huh? At best, animals in the wild are equivalent to humans subsisting on nature. That life is hard, and you don't have time for much else.
- gravitycop 18y ago
  animals in the wild No. Chimpanzees. Their intelligence and creativity are just below those of humans. They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields. http://images.google.com/images?q=bedtime+for+bonzo http://images.google.com/images?q=bedtime+for+bonzo What proportion of them alive today work in creative fields in today's society? today in the future chimps < humans humans < AI chimps:humans::humans:AI http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analogy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analogy
  - jerf 18y ago
    "They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields." No, they don't. To compete, they must be in the same market. Chimps aren't in the same market as humans until you face a serious choice between Tom Hanks and a chimpanzee for your next dramatic role. Frankly, "we have AIs that can build the next Casablanca" is on the other side of the singularity. There's so many possibilities at that point that we can't speculate. "Humans are reduced to twiddling their thumbs" is only one possibility of many, and I'd rate it pretty low for a number of reasons.
    - gravitycop 18y ago
      >> They compete in today's society against humans in creative fields. > No, they don't. To compete, they must be in the same market. Chimpanzees create works of fine art: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+painting http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+painting They compete against human artists for prestige, and their works command sums of money. Chimpanzees perform in dramatic roles in movies: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+movie http://images.google.com/images?q=chimpanzee+movie http://images.google.com/images?q=chimp+bj+bear http://images.google.com/images?q=chimp+bj+bear Chimpanzees provide spectacle entertainment for paying customers by living in zoos: http://images.google.com/images?q=chimps+zoo http://images.google.com/images?q=chimps+zoo Perhaps humans, someday, will be living in zoos, providing spectacle entertainment for paying customers (AI) who vastly outclass them in terms of intelligence and creativity. Perhaps these humans will occasionally be given a role in a movie, and perhaps their "fine art works" will be commoditized based on their novelty value.