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It's not a bubble yet. Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. The Dot com burst happened because there were lots of unsustainable business m

It's not a bubble yet. Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. The Dot com burst happened because there were lots of unsustainable business models. I don't see them as equal.

Terr_ 1y ago
> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. There's always some "value" in a bubble, but how does one confirm that it's enough "direct value" that the investments are proportionate? Enormous investments should go with enormous benefits, and by now a very-measurable portion of expected benefit should have arrived...
belter 1y ago
> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI Name one
- johnfn 1y ago
  Cursor?
  - raw_anon_1111 1y ago
    Is cursor profitable?
    - bdangubic 1y ago
      getting direct value and being profitable are two different things… META and AMZN and … have all been non-profitable early
      - raw_anon_1111 1y ago
        Meta was profitable long before they went public and never had any significant amount of losses and Amazon had profitable unit economics and they were investing in real things like warehouses. But still that is the ultimate survivorship bias. Is each new customer that Cursor has bringing in more money than they cost Cursor?
        bdangubic 1y ago
        if we learned anything over the last decade or so it is that profitability is absolutely irrelevant. just look at UBER… value is the only thing that matters, you can be significantly unprofitable for a very, very long time
        raw_anon_1111 1y ago
        Again survivorship bias. And all of the companies that failed? Let’s just look at how the YC companies that have gone public are doing https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-combinator-companies-a-mixed-bag-of-success-and-struggle-58e9a4006f01 https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-...
        bdangubic 1y ago
        some companies prosper, some die. some AI companies will prosper, some will die
        raw_anon_1111 1y ago
        True. But it’s the whole idea that if they lose a lot of money now, they will definitely be successful. This is the thought process these let’s startups - especially a lot of the YC companies - to underpay developers and give them equity that will statistically be worthless.
- tibbydudeza 1y ago
  NVidia :).
  - sph 1y ago
    GP's question should've been "name two", because there is only one winner here, and it's a dude with a leather jacket.
beberlei 1y ago
customers also got value out of pets.com selling them products for below cost.
waterTanuki 1y ago
> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. Source that immediately refutes this claim: https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ai_report_2025.pdf https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploa... > Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return
dragonwriter 1y ago
> It's not a bubble yet. Yes, it is. > Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. Many companies were already getting direct value out of the internet during the dotcom bubble. Bubbles do not require the absence of real value being delivered by the bubble industry, they require levels of investment that are anticipate more real value that can be delivered on a time frame for existing valuations across the industry to be sustainable. > The Dot com burst happened because there were lots of unsustainable business models. There are lots of unsustainable business models in the AI space, too. If you are looking at OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic (even though they, too, may be somewhat inflated), you are making the same mistake as looking at Google (ironically) during the dotcom bubble. > I don't see them as equal. They aren't equal, the AI bubble is much bigger.

It's not a bubble yet. Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. The Dot com burst happened because there were lots of unsustainable business models. I don't see them as equal.

Terr_ 1y ago

> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. There's always some "value" in a bubble, but how does one confirm that it's enough "direct value" that the investments are proportionate? Enormous investments should go with enormous benefits, and by now a very-measurable portion of expected benefit should have arrived...

belter 1y ago

> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI Name one

johnfn 1y ago
Cursor?
- raw_anon_1111 1y ago
  Is cursor profitable?
  - bdangubic 1y ago
    getting direct value and being profitable are two different things… META and AMZN and … have all been non-profitable early
    - raw_anon_1111 1y ago
      Meta was profitable long before they went public and never had any significant amount of losses and Amazon had profitable unit economics and they were investing in real things like warehouses. But still that is the ultimate survivorship bias. Is each new customer that Cursor has bringing in more money than they cost Cursor?
      - bdangubic 1y ago
        if we learned anything over the last decade or so it is that profitability is absolutely irrelevant. just look at UBER… value is the only thing that matters, you can be significantly unprofitable for a very, very long time
        raw_anon_1111 1y ago
        Again survivorship bias. And all of the companies that failed? Let’s just look at how the YC companies that have gone public are doing https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-combinator-companies-a-mixed-bag-of-success-and-struggle-58e9a4006f01 https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-...
        bdangubic 1y ago
        some companies prosper, some die. some AI companies will prosper, some will die
        raw_anon_1111 1y ago
        True. But it’s the whole idea that if they lose a lot of money now, they will definitely be successful. This is the thought process these let’s startups - especially a lot of the YC companies - to underpay developers and give them equity that will statistically be worthless.
tibbydudeza 1y ago
NVidia :).
- sph 1y ago
  GP's question should've been "name two", because there is only one winner here, and it's a dude with a leather jacket.

beberlei 1y ago

customers also got value out of pets.com selling them products for below cost.

waterTanuki 1y ago

> Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. Source that immediately refutes this claim: https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ai_report_2025.pdf https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploa... > Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return

dragonwriter 1y ago

> It's not a bubble yet. Yes, it is. > Many companies are already getting direct value out of AI. Many companies were already getting direct value out of the internet during the dotcom bubble. Bubbles do not require the absence of real value being delivered by the bubble industry, they require levels of investment that are anticipate more real value that can be delivered on a time frame for existing valuations across the industry to be sustainable. > The Dot com burst happened because there were lots of unsustainable business models. There are lots of unsustainable business models in the AI space, too. If you are looking at OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic (even though they, too, may be somewhat inflated), you are making the same mistake as looking at Google (ironically) during the dotcom bubble. > I don't see them as equal. They aren't equal, the AI bubble is much bigger.