I suggest that the issue at hand is that all we see is shadow play - we have incomplete data, which hints at many different ways the ground reality may be movin

I suggest that the issue at hand is that all we see is shadow play - we have incomplete data, which hints at many different ways the ground reality may be moving. Even if we had complete data, with a country like China there are many actors pulling ground reality in different directions, so being able to arrive at a binary state for the country seems unlikely. The requirements of violent revolt are pretty extensive - most people endured generations of hardship, and for them to overthrow the system the leadership and hardship requirements are steep.