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AGI as defined these days is typically “can perform at competent human level on all knowledge work tasks” so somewhat tautologically it does threaten to substit

AGI as defined these days is typically “can perform at competent human level on all knowledge work tasks” so somewhat tautologically it does threaten to substitute for all these jobs. It’s a good thing to keep in mind that plumbers are a thing, my personal take is if you automated all the knowledge work then physical/robot automation would swiftly follow for the blue-collar jobs: robots are software-limited right now, and as Baumol’s Cost Disease sets in, physical labor would become more expensive so there would be increased incentive to solve the remaining hardware limitations.

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yujzgzc 1y ago
I don't think that robots are software-limited in all domains... And even if AI became a superhuman software dev, it wouldn't drive the cost of software development to zero.
- theptip 1y ago
  Humanoid robotics (ie replacing the majority of workers) is highly software-limited right now. Here’s a napkin-sketch proof: for many decades we have had hardware that is capable of dextrously automating specific tasks (eg car manufacture) but the limitation is the control loop; you have to hire a specialist to write g-code or whatever, it’s difficult to adapt to hardware variance (slop, wear, etc) let alone adjust the task to new requirements. If you look at the current “robot butler” hardware startups they are working on: 1) making hardware affordable, 2) inventing the required software. Nothing in my post suggested costs go to zero. In the AGI scenario you assume software costs halve every N years, which means more software is written, and timelines for valuable projects get dramatically compressed.
  - anon7725 1y ago
    Also, presumably if you have AGI you can have it address a physical problem at a higher level of abstraction. "Design a device to make any water heater installable by a single person in 20 minutes" would result in a complex system that would make a lot of blue collar labor redundant (the last water heater I had installed took 3 guys over an hour to complete). It would not even necessarily result in a human-like robot - just some device that can move the water heater around and assist with the process of disconnecting the old one and installing the new one.

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yujzgzc 1y ago

I don't think that robots are software-limited in all domains... And even if AI became a superhuman software dev, it wouldn't drive the cost of software development to zero.

theptip 1y ago
Humanoid robotics (ie replacing the majority of workers) is highly software-limited right now. Here’s a napkin-sketch proof: for many decades we have had hardware that is capable of dextrously automating specific tasks (eg car manufacture) but the limitation is the control loop; you have to hire a specialist to write g-code or whatever, it’s difficult to adapt to hardware variance (slop, wear, etc) let alone adjust the task to new requirements. If you look at the current “robot butler” hardware startups they are working on: 1) making hardware affordable, 2) inventing the required software. Nothing in my post suggested costs go to zero. In the AGI scenario you assume software costs halve every N years, which means more software is written, and timelines for valuable projects get dramatically compressed.
- anon7725 1y ago
  Also, presumably if you have AGI you can have it address a physical problem at a higher level of abstraction. "Design a device to make any water heater installable by a single person in 20 minutes" would result in a complex system that would make a lot of blue collar labor redundant (the last water heater I had installed took 3 guys over an hour to complete). It would not even necessarily result in a human-like robot - just some device that can move the water heater around and assist with the process of disconnecting the old one and installing the new one.