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If ML is limited to replacing some tasks that humans do, yes it will be much like any past technological innovation. If we build AGI, we don't have a past comp

If ML is limited to replacing some tasks that humans do, yes it will be much like any past technological innovation. If we build AGI, we don't have a past comparison for that. Technologies so far have always replaced a subset of what humans currently do, not everything at once.

scotty79 1y ago
I love SF, but somehow I don't find it very good foundation for predicting the future. Especially when people focus of one, very narrow theme of SF and claim with certainty that's what's gonna happen.
- Ray20 1y ago
  I mean, yes. The invention of AI that replaces virtually all workers would certainly pose a serious challenge to society. But that's nothing compared to what would happen if Jesus descended from the sky and turned off gravity for the entire planet.
- stevedonovan 1y ago
  Heh,I read SF as San Francisco; point remains true. Except the Valley wants to force a future, not describe it
- Flere-Imsaho 1y ago
  > I love SF, but somehow I don't find it very good foundation for predicting the future. Nineteen Eighty-Four would like to have a word with you! Out of all SF, I would probably want to live in The Culture (Iain M. Banks). In these books, people basically focus on their interests as all their needs are met by The Minds. The Minds (basically AIs) find humans infinity fascinating - I assume because they were designed that way.
  - nearbuy 1y ago
    Nineteen Eighty-Four captures the political zeitgeist of when it was written (~1949) and the following years better than it captures that of 1984. This was the era of the cold war and McCarthyism. Describing the present often seems surprisingly prescient to later generations.
  - danielodievich 1y ago
    Props on the very appropriate username, drone.
yujzgzc 1y ago
AGI does not replace "everything". It might replace most of the work that someone can do behind a desk, but there are a lot of jobs that involve going out there and working with reality outside of the computer.
- theptip 1y ago
  AGI as defined these days is typically “can perform at competent human level on all knowledge work tasks” so somewhat tautologically it does threaten to substitute for all these jobs. It’s a good thing to keep in mind that plumbers are a thing, my personal take is if you automated all the knowledge work then physical/robot automation would swiftly follow for the blue-collar jobs: robots are software-limited right now, and as Baumol’s Cost Disease sets in, physical labor would become more expensive so there would be increased incentive to solve the remaining hardware limitations.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - yujzgzc 1y ago
    I don't think that robots are software-limited in all domains... And even if AI became a superhuman software dev, it wouldn't drive the cost of software development to zero.
    - theptip 1y ago
      Humanoid robotics (ie replacing the majority of workers) is highly software-limited right now. Here’s a napkin-sketch proof: for many decades we have had hardware that is capable of dextrously automating specific tasks (eg car manufacture) but the limitation is the control loop; you have to hire a specialist to write g-code or whatever, it’s difficult to adapt to hardware variance (slop, wear, etc) let alone adjust the task to new requirements. If you look at the current “robot butler” hardware startups they are working on: 1) making hardware affordable, 2) inventing the required software. Nothing in my post suggested costs go to zero. In the AGI scenario you assume software costs halve every N years, which means more software is written, and timelines for valuable projects get dramatically compressed.

scotty79 1y ago

I love SF, but somehow I don't find it very good foundation for predicting the future. Especially when people focus of one, very narrow theme of SF and claim with certainty that's what's gonna happen.

Ray20 1y ago
I mean, yes. The invention of AI that replaces virtually all workers would certainly pose a serious challenge to society. But that's nothing compared to what would happen if Jesus descended from the sky and turned off gravity for the entire planet.
stevedonovan 1y ago
Heh,I read SF as San Francisco; point remains true. Except the Valley wants to force a future, not describe it
Flere-Imsaho 1y ago
> I love SF, but somehow I don't find it very good foundation for predicting the future. Nineteen Eighty-Four would like to have a word with you! Out of all SF, I would probably want to live in The Culture (Iain M. Banks). In these books, people basically focus on their interests as all their needs are met by The Minds. The Minds (basically AIs) find humans infinity fascinating - I assume because they were designed that way.
- nearbuy 1y ago
  Nineteen Eighty-Four captures the political zeitgeist of when it was written (~1949) and the following years better than it captures that of 1984. This was the era of the cold war and McCarthyism. Describing the present often seems surprisingly prescient to later generations.
- danielodievich 1y ago
  Props on the very appropriate username, drone.

yujzgzc 1y ago

AGI does not replace "everything". It might replace most of the work that someone can do behind a desk, but there are a lot of jobs that involve going out there and working with reality outside of the computer.

theptip 1y ago
AGI as defined these days is typically “can perform at competent human level on all knowledge work tasks” so somewhat tautologically it does threaten to substitute for all these jobs. It’s a good thing to keep in mind that plumbers are a thing, my personal take is if you automated all the knowledge work then physical/robot automation would swiftly follow for the blue-collar jobs: robots are software-limited right now, and as Baumol’s Cost Disease sets in, physical labor would become more expensive so there would be increased incentive to solve the remaining hardware limitations.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- yujzgzc 1y ago
  I don't think that robots are software-limited in all domains... And even if AI became a superhuman software dev, it wouldn't drive the cost of software development to zero.
  - theptip 1y ago
    Humanoid robotics (ie replacing the majority of workers) is highly software-limited right now. Here’s a napkin-sketch proof: for many decades we have had hardware that is capable of dextrously automating specific tasks (eg car manufacture) but the limitation is the control loop; you have to hire a specialist to write g-code or whatever, it’s difficult to adapt to hardware variance (slop, wear, etc) let alone adjust the task to new requirements. If you look at the current “robot butler” hardware startups they are working on: 1) making hardware affordable, 2) inventing the required software. Nothing in my post suggested costs go to zero. In the AGI scenario you assume software costs halve every N years, which means more software is written, and timelines for valuable projects get dramatically compressed.