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Where do you plan to get your time machine, to find a 1971 cohort of ACT test takers that looks like the 2025 one? Why assume that the OECD is measuring someth
by doctorpangloss 1y ago
Where do you plan to get your time machine, to find a 1971 cohort of ACT test takers that looks like the 2025 one?
Why assume that the OECD is measuring something well? What do you know about them and the PISA test?
RFKJR, an idiot, has charts from the CDC, a reliable source, that show autism prevalence is going up and to the right.
There are two explanations for the chart: one is toxic environment increases and causes autism (RFKJR), and one is more screenings, broader criteria and diagnostic substitution (CDC). Who do you think is right? What do we call CDC's explanation?
Does the chart have "complexity" (you criticize this elsewhere)? Can a chart be both "real" (as in not "fake") but also flawed? Do we pick and choose which charts we use which words for, depending on our politics? (Yes).
Why do you think politically-influenced thinking doesn't apply to you? Do you think "blaming smartphones" is apolitical?
How does your analysis about smartphones differ structurally from an RFKJR presentation? Remember, he's an idiot. You bring out some charts, there's a lot of coincidence time series, and the sources on the face of it are reliable. Does that make "it" true?
RFKJR (an idiot) also talks about "rigor," like you do. He goes and mooks his theories on Fox News instead of Hacker News. Okay, does he ever take down the stuff he was wrong about? (No). Do you see? So even if you are "wrong", you go and talk about rigor, are you going to take down your website? Or bring it down until you fix its flaws? (No.)
Finally. We only talk about charts and benchmarks that align with vibes. Apolitical example: all the AI benchmarks show Anthropic, Google and OpenAI as the "top 3", because if you made a benchmark, as rigorous as it is, that showed something else, people would not believe it. It doesn't matter if what it measures is real. For something political, this problem is acute.
Does this vibes phenomenon exist for "charts" about "crime"? (Yes). Does this phenomenon describe test scores?