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Not explicitly arguing against the thesis of the website, but showing trend lines which allegedly started in 2007 with data that starts in 2006 is... Not convin
by nkoren 1y ago
Not explicitly arguing against the thesis of the website, but showing trend lines which allegedly started in 2007 with data that starts in 2006 is... Not convincing.
- throwmeaway876 1y agoExactly this. I am convinced about the premise but for the love of god zoom out those charts.
- ajross 1y agoAlso worth noting that a lot of the graphs (the ACT scores in particular) are constructed to show a downward trend but really seem to be measuring the COVID pandemic more directly.
- jwagenet 1y agoThe SAT and ACT plots indicate an accelerating downward trend beginning in 2018 though, later exacerbated by COVID.
- ajross 1y agoThat is exactly the bad analysis I was calling out. If you take a data set and point out (while squinting) that it appears maybe to be turning down in the last two data points, any reasonable analyst should point out that those look like routine outliers and that if you want to project a trend you need more data. Instead, you'd taking a very large (and well understood) signal in the next 5-ish data points and saying that it's proof of the trend. Which is silly. No, that chart shows covid, period. If someone wants to show an uncorrelated effect across a signal that big, they need to come to the table with a lot more sophistication than a "WTF Happened?" blog post.
- jwagenet 1y agoFine, the dips 2018-2019 could very well be noise and we don't dont know if that trend would have borne out after 2020. However, the ACT and SAT composites gradually declined following peaks in 07 and 12, respectively, given the available data.
- ajross 1y agoCome on. Extremely mildly down-sloping if at all, and without anything like an inflection point that would justify "WTF Happened in 2007?" You can't do this like this. I mean, you sort of can if the effect is big enough (c.f. the 1971 site which inspired this one, and which makes a much better case). But if you can't eyeball a very clear angle in the chart without argument, you need to come to the table with some kind of fitted curve and real research.
- JKCalhoun 1y agoAgree. Might as well start with internet adoption, but the phone allows us to carry that weight with us all day. To be sure it started a bit sooner.
- cmrdporcupine 1y agoExactly, I've been net-addicted since .. uh, BBS culture in the late 80s, and I almost never use my smartphone but have my laptop or computer screen in front of me most of the day. I don't feel much better held together than my teens with their phones.
- philistine 1y agoYou are absolutely not the typical person. The vast majority of people, and 100% of the people born after 2007, are deeply affected by smartphones. I know I am!