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Two events each having a low probability is not the same thing as the events not happening. Despite our best efforts, folks still win the lottery, and you’re mo

by gortok 1y ago

Two events each having a low probability is not the same thing as the events not happening. Despite our best efforts, folks still win the lottery, and you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than win the powerball jackpot. So while it can be extremely unlikely from a probability standpoint that this plane was stuck by space debris, and it can also be extremely unlikely that he saw it before it hit, it’s not a false statement just because the probability says it’s unlikely. And of course, despite probability, folks still get struck by lightning.

rzzzt 1y ago
Do lottery winners get struck by lightning?
- arcanemachiner 1y ago
  At least once: https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/canadian-mans-lottery-win-lightning-strike-26-trillion/story%3fid=32590554 https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Internationa...
  - foofoo12 1y ago
    It sounds like some deity of fortune frantically balancing the books before an audit.
- Calavar 1y ago
  Apparently yes: https://abcnews.go.com/International/canadian-mans-lottery-win-lightning-strike-26-trillion/story?id=32590554 https://abcnews.go.com/International/canadian-mans-lottery-w...
  - aspenmayer 1y ago
    Appreciate the non-AMP link.
pxeger1 1y ago
> folks still win the lottery, and you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than win the powerball jackpot I'm more likely to get struck by lightning than win the lottery, sure. But it's much more likely that someone wins the lottery this week (~100% in fact) than that someone gets struck by lightning this week. Edit: my point about independence of events still stands, but it turns out people get struck by lightning amazingly often. The chance of someone in the world getting struck by lightning this week seems to be about 99%!
- 010101010101 1y ago
  > it's much more likely that someone wins the lottery this week (~100% in fact) than that someone gets struck by lightning this week No it isn’t? Not only are the individual odds of winning the lottery lower than the individual odds of being struck by lightning, but far more people are exposed to lightning on a weekly basis than participate in any given lottery.
  - CaptainOfCoit 1y ago
    Lets reframe it: Someone always win the lottery, lighting doesn't always strike a human.
    - 010101010101 1y ago
      That’s not true either though - someone eventually always wins the lottery, someone eventually always gets struck by lightning. The latter usually happens before the former.
      - CaptainOfCoit 1y ago
        When a lottery happens, there is always a winner, that's how they work. When there is a lightning, it doesn't always strike a human. The former is (almost) guaranteed to happen, barring something out of the ordinary, while the latter usually doesn't happen, but does happen sometimes.
foofoo12 1y ago
> folks still win the lottery Yep, and: "In 1998, Bill Morgan, an Australian man from Melbourne was captured on film winning a AU$250,000 scratchcard while re-enacting his previous scratchcard win for a news report. The video of the event has since been widely shared online." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Morgan_lottery_win https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Morgan_lottery_win
- lukan 1y ago
  Wow, what a story. Especially with the background what happened to him before winning twice. "Morgan, a 37-year-old truck driver living in a caravan, was almost killed in a car crash which caused him to develop a heart condition. He then suffered an allergic reaction to the drug used to treat this condition, which triggered a fatal heart attack. He was declared clinically dead for 14 minutes and 38 seconds before being revived by paramedics. He subsequently lapsed into a coma for 12 days, during which his family were advised to turn off his life support. After being transferred to a different hospital, he woke up and made a full recovery."
  - hshdhdhehd 1y ago
    He is living some combination of Final Destination and Lost.
    - serial_dev 1y ago
      Or someone at the hospital wanted him dead.
      - selimthegrim 1y ago
        I believe the movie you’re looking for is Coma
- tzs 1y ago
  That article could use some work. In the second paragraph after the one that quote is from it says: > His dramatic change in fortune attracted local media attention, and two weeks after his first scratchcard win in May 1999, Nine News asked him to re-enact it for the B-roll footage of their news report. While being filmed scratching off another card inside the shop, he turned around, held up the ticket and said, "I just won 250,000. I'm not joking. I just won 250,000." 1998 was when he suffered a car crash followed by serious medical problems.
NedF 1y ago
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by gortok 1y ago

rzzzt 1y ago

Do lottery winners get struck by lightning?

arcanemachiner 1y ago
At least once: https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/canadian-mans-lottery-win-lightning-strike-26-trillion/story%3fid=32590554 https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Internationa...
- foofoo12 1y ago
  It sounds like some deity of fortune frantically balancing the books before an audit.
Calavar 1y ago
Apparently yes: https://abcnews.go.com/International/canadian-mans-lottery-win-lightning-strike-26-trillion/story?id=32590554 https://abcnews.go.com/International/canadian-mans-lottery-w...
- aspenmayer 1y ago
  Appreciate the non-AMP link.

pxeger1 1y ago

> folks still win the lottery, and you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than win the powerball jackpot I'm more likely to get struck by lightning than win the lottery, sure. But it's much more likely that someone wins the lottery this week (~100% in fact) than that someone gets struck by lightning this week. Edit: my point about independence of events still stands, but it turns out people get struck by lightning amazingly often. The chance of someone in the world getting struck by lightning this week seems to be about 99%!

010101010101 1y ago
> it's much more likely that someone wins the lottery this week (~100% in fact) than that someone gets struck by lightning this week No it isn’t? Not only are the individual odds of winning the lottery lower than the individual odds of being struck by lightning, but far more people are exposed to lightning on a weekly basis than participate in any given lottery.
- CaptainOfCoit 1y ago
  Lets reframe it: Someone always win the lottery, lighting doesn't always strike a human.
  - 010101010101 1y ago
    That’s not true either though - someone eventually always wins the lottery, someone eventually always gets struck by lightning. The latter usually happens before the former.
    - CaptainOfCoit 1y ago
      When a lottery happens, there is always a winner, that's how they work. When there is a lightning, it doesn't always strike a human. The former is (almost) guaranteed to happen, barring something out of the ordinary, while the latter usually doesn't happen, but does happen sometimes.

foofoo12 1y ago

> folks still win the lottery Yep, and: "In 1998, Bill Morgan, an Australian man from Melbourne was captured on film winning a AU$250,000 scratchcard while re-enacting his previous scratchcard win for a news report. The video of the event has since been widely shared online." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Morgan_lottery_win https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Morgan_lottery_win

lukan 1y ago
Wow, what a story. Especially with the background what happened to him before winning twice. "Morgan, a 37-year-old truck driver living in a caravan, was almost killed in a car crash which caused him to develop a heart condition. He then suffered an allergic reaction to the drug used to treat this condition, which triggered a fatal heart attack. He was declared clinically dead for 14 minutes and 38 seconds before being revived by paramedics. He subsequently lapsed into a coma for 12 days, during which his family were advised to turn off his life support. After being transferred to a different hospital, he woke up and made a full recovery."
- hshdhdhehd 1y ago
  He is living some combination of Final Destination and Lost.
  - serial_dev 1y ago
    Or someone at the hospital wanted him dead.
    - selimthegrim 1y ago
      I believe the movie you’re looking for is Coma
tzs 1y ago
That article could use some work. In the second paragraph after the one that quote is from it says: > His dramatic change in fortune attracted local media attention, and two weeks after his first scratchcard win in May 1999, Nine News asked him to re-enact it for the B-roll footage of their news report. While being filmed scratching off another card inside the shop, he turned around, held up the ticket and said, "I just won 250,000. I'm not joking. I just won 250,000." 1998 was when he suffered a car crash followed by serious medical problems.

NedF 1y ago

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