4 ms·
This is bizarre to me on many levels. 1) Moore’s law is “dead”, but the AI boom is being built on GPUs that get faster, smaller, and cheaper every year? Their
by TheTaytay 1y ago
This is bizarre to me on many levels.
1) Moore’s law is “dead”, but the AI boom is being built on GPUs that get faster, smaller, and cheaper every year? Their biggest problem is that they can’t be manufactured fast enough, and that humanity doesn’t produce enough electricity to meet demand.
2) Oil and its byproducts are in extremely high demand. He wants it to be a dying industry, and I can see why, but it sure looks to me that oil and its derivatives (which don’t look anything like crude or fuel) are in extremely high demand, with no replacement in sight. If you know someone in the oil industry, they might have concerns, but “people don’t seem to want to pay us shocking amounts of money to pump this stuff out of the ground every day because of those darn clean energy sources, so I guess we will stop drilling” isn’t one of them.
3) So much faith in solar panels…and the mention of ship power as a metric, but no mention of the nuclear power plants that actually power modern (or heck, even aging) fleets for shockingly long periods of time. We aren’t decommissioning those power plants to plate the ships in PVs. When we need consistent, orders of magnitude more power, we use nuclear. Data centers are incentivized to find the best way to power these mega-centers they are planning, and they don’t seem very excited about the ability to install a lot of solar panels on the roof. They are however trying to build or restart their own nuclear power plants…
Once you have access to enough energy, as in orders of magnitude more energy, the economics and physics change. This isn’t just about powering cars and houses. If you need hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon chains in a particular form to make portable, energy dense fuels, lubricants, and plastics, the raw materials are in seawater and the air (h2o and co2). We are “just” missing the affordable energy input to make those chemical reactions worth it when comparing it to the ease of taking this pre-formed stuff literally out of the ground. Solar is neat, and will hopefully replace certain types of energy needs on a local level, but it’s not the end of oil or society’s unlock for the next big thing.
https://www.seadragon.energy/seawater-to-jet-fuel https://www.seadragon.energy/seawater-to-jet-fuel
https://xkcd.com/1162/ https://xkcd.com/1162/
- rsynnott 1y ago> Moore’s law is “dead”, but the AI boom is being built on GPUs that get faster, smaller, and cheaper every year? Moore's law doesn't mean that things get smaller, faster and cheaper every year. It is specifically that number of transistors doubles about every two years. That ceased to be ~reliably the case about 15 years ago, becoming more modest. > So much faith in solar panels…and the mention of ship power as a metric, but no mention of the nuclear power plants that actually power modern (or heck, even aging) fleets for shockingly long periods of time. Eh? Nuclear ships are a rounding error. There are effectively none of them, versus oil-powered ships. > They are however trying to build or restart their own nuclear power plants… I'm endlessly fascinated by this, because, based on real-life nuclear build-out times, it _has_ to be a scam; if you're building a data centre now, there's just no point talking about nuclear, because building a nuclear plant will take 15 to 20 years, by which time the data centre will be obsolete. But it's unclear what the scam _is_.