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After reading the article, I can't help walk away with the idea that China has massive internal tensions that will probably be resolved by violent revolt, wheth
by einhverfr 14y ago
After reading the article, I can't help walk away with the idea that China has massive internal tensions that will probably be resolved by violent revolt, whether it takes place on a civil war model or on the model of the riots during the fall of Soharto in Indonesia in 1999. What we are seeing, I think, are indications of tensions and these will be released just as tension within he earth is released by earthquakes.
- intended 14y agoI suggest that the issue at hand is that all we see is shadow play - we have incomplete data, which hints at many different ways the ground reality may be moving. Even if we had complete data, with a country like China there are many actors pulling ground reality in different directions, so being able to arrive at a binary state for the country seems unlikely. The requirements of violent revolt are pretty extensive - most people endured generations of hardship, and for them to overthrow the system the leadership and hardship requirements are steep.