I agree: although there is a very small chance that civil war will break out in the US, there's essentially zero chance it becomes a failed state. The administ

I agree: although there is a very small chance that civil war will break out in the US, there's essentially zero chance it becomes a failed state. The administrative consensus created by FDR is breaking down, and it is not yet clear what will replace it. (Trump is unlikely to be the main architect of the new administrative consensus.) To people who cannot help but view everything through the lens of the old consensus, it looks like the entire US society is breaking down, but the US is very good at invention and reinvention, so once the outlines of a new administrative consensus forms, state capacity will return very quickly. I'm repeating George Friedman here.