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It's nice seeing commentary from someone who is both knowledgable in AI and NOT trying to pump the AI bag. Right now the median actor in the space loudly procl

It's nice seeing commentary from someone who is both knowledgable in AI and NOT trying to pump the AI bag. Right now the median actor in the space loudly proclaims AGI is right around the corner, while rolling out pornbots/ads/in-chat-shopping, which generally seems at odds with a real belief that AGI is close (TAM of AGI must be exponentially larger than the former).

theptip 1y ago
Zvi made this point the other day, and then this counterpoint which I agree with more - if you think AGI is soon but you need to keep up the exponential datacenter growth for 2-3 years (or whatever “around the corner” means for the company in question) then a land-grab on consumer ARR is a faster way to short-term revenue (and therefore higher valuations at your next round). OAI is also doing F100 and USG work; it takes longer to book the revenue though. By selling porn and shopping you are in some sense weakening your position with regulators which you'll need when AGI starts displacing jobs - but you can also imagine thinking that this is a second order problem and winning the race is way more urgent.
- AstroBen 1y ago
  Well if they think AGI is soon with no evidence then that's not worth a whole lot If they think AGI is soon AND they can back it up, why can't they convince investors and have them make up the difference for the next 2-3 years? Seems like a much better strategy than the pornbots and a weaker position with regulators I mean if anything this makes it seem like they're not confident they'll get to AGI that soon.. they're not optimizing for that eventual outcome
  - theptip 1y ago
    Why does it have to be a dichotomy? Raise money from AGI-pilled investors with an AGI pitch. Raise more money from AGI-skeptics with a B2C growth story. Moar money == moar GPUs.
throwaway314155 1y ago
What exactly is a "pornbot"?

theptip 1y ago

Zvi made this point the other day, and then this counterpoint which I agree with more - if you think AGI is soon but you need to keep up the exponential datacenter growth for 2-3 years (or whatever “around the corner” means for the company in question) then a land-grab on consumer ARR is a faster way to short-term revenue (and therefore higher valuations at your next round). OAI is also doing F100 and USG work; it takes longer to book the revenue though. By selling porn and shopping you are in some sense weakening your position with regulators which you'll need when AGI starts displacing jobs - but you can also imagine thinking that this is a second order problem and winning the race is way more urgent.

AstroBen 1y ago
Well if they think AGI is soon with no evidence then that's not worth a whole lot If they think AGI is soon AND they can back it up, why can't they convince investors and have them make up the difference for the next 2-3 years? Seems like a much better strategy than the pornbots and a weaker position with regulators I mean if anything this makes it seem like they're not confident they'll get to AGI that soon.. they're not optimizing for that eventual outcome
- theptip 1y ago
  Why does it have to be a dichotomy? Raise money from AGI-pilled investors with an AGI pitch. Raise more money from AGI-skeptics with a B2C growth story. Moar money == moar GPUs.

throwaway314155 1y ago

What exactly is a "pornbot"?