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I don't think AGI is imminent in a "few months"-inminent, but in a "few decades" imminent. Personally, I don't own stocks in any AI company, though I'll be affe

by dsign 1y ago

I don't think AGI is imminent in a "few months"-inminent, but in a "few decades" imminent. Personally, I don't own stocks in any AI company, though I'll be affected if the bubble bursts because the world economy right now feels fragile. But I'm hoping something good comes out of the real push to build more compute and to make it cheaper. Maybe a bunch of intrepid aficionados will use it to run biological simulations to make cats immortal, at which point I'll finally get a cat. And then I will be very happy.

erichocean 1y ago
If by AGI you mean "can do any economic task humans currently do", that is within the range of a "few months," though the rollout will be incremental since each economic task has to be independently taught, there are supply chain issues, and AI-first companients will need to be developed to take best advantage of it, etc. But all of this is much closer than people seem to realize.
- dns_snek 1y ago
  How about we start with just one, like software development with its abundance of data? It's going to look far less silly for you when that one doesn't work out either.
  - erichocean 1y ago
    Software development will be one of the first things AI labor does. What is silly are people like you claiming it can't be done. Your mistake is thinking that having "an abundance of data" is the bottleneck.
    - dns_snek 1y ago
      Can you quote where I said that it can't be done? I only said it won't be done in a matter of months like you claimed. > "can do any economic task humans currently do", that is within the range of a "few months," I think it's extremely unlikely that anything of the sort will be done by 2030 in any profession. I feel confident that I'll still have a job as a software developer in 2040 if I'm not in retirement by then. Now the real question - how long until they can perform ANY "economic task" (or at least any office job)? I don't think that's happening within our lifetimes. Certainly not within 20 years and to predict that this is coming within "months" isn't just silly, it's completely delusional. > Your mistake is thinking that having "an abundance of data" is the bottleneck. That, and the economics of building a billion-dollar supercomputer just to replace a junior software developer. And we're STILL just talking about software development. How about any real engineering discipline, how many months before one of those jobs can be done by AI?
      - erichocean 1y ago
        I'm comfortable letting history decide who is right. Thanks for your reply.

by dsign 1y ago

erichocean 1y ago

If by AGI you mean "can do any economic task humans currently do", that is within the range of a "few months," though the rollout will be incremental since each economic task has to be independently taught, there are supply chain issues, and AI-first companients will need to be developed to take best advantage of it, etc. But all of this is much closer than people seem to realize.

dns_snek 1y ago
How about we start with just one, like software development with its abundance of data? It's going to look far less silly for you when that one doesn't work out either.
- erichocean 1y ago
  Software development will be one of the first things AI labor does. What is silly are people like you claiming it can't be done. Your mistake is thinking that having "an abundance of data" is the bottleneck.
  - dns_snek 1y ago
    Can you quote where I said that it can't be done? I only said it won't be done in a matter of months like you claimed. > "can do any economic task humans currently do", that is within the range of a "few months," I think it's extremely unlikely that anything of the sort will be done by 2030 in any profession. I feel confident that I'll still have a job as a software developer in 2040 if I'm not in retirement by then. Now the real question - how long until they can perform ANY "economic task" (or at least any office job)? I don't think that's happening within our lifetimes. Certainly not within 20 years and to predict that this is coming within "months" isn't just silly, it's completely delusional. > Your mistake is thinking that having "an abundance of data" is the bottleneck. That, and the economics of building a billion-dollar supercomputer just to replace a junior software developer. And we're STILL just talking about software development. How about any real engineering discipline, how many months before one of those jobs can be done by AI?
    - erichocean 1y ago
      I'm comfortable letting history decide who is right. Thanks for your reply.