4 ms·

I'd recommend Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition

stonogo 1y ago
All that tells me is that someone likes normal distribution charts. It describes the concept but I still have no idea what OP is talking about. What started in France in the 1800s and continues in America today?
- pram 1y ago
  I think he means declining birth rates? They were low during the French Third Republic and didn’t recover until WW2 iirc
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- Terr_ 1y ago
  I feel the Wikipedia article is pretty clear. It refers to a repeated pattern of changes in births, deaths, technological change, and industrialization. The pattern can be seen in many countries, with various timing-offsets and rates. It has nothing to do with any particular ethnicity. Insofar as "immigration" comes into play, it refers to economic demand for labor as the population-bump people exit the labor pool.
  - stonogo 1y ago
    I'm trying to figure out what changes the OP claimed are being driven by this. Birth-rate-over-time changes happen everywhere and have throughout history, but apparently this is now driving major change?
    - Terr_ 1y ago
      I initially read the top-of-thread HN comment as: 1. Stross is trying to tie many events to a change from fossil fuels to solar power, but stronger drivers lie elsewhere. 2. It's better-explained by population dynamics, involving medical technology, mortality and longevity, contraceptives, the shifting balance of workers to retirees, etc. 3. [Charitable-reading effort increases here] These trends involved are old and multi-generational, arguably going back to the industrial revolution. As a casual way to show a very-long-ago datapoint, there are arguments/research about a secularizing France's odd population slump back in the 1700s, which predates the widespread use of fossil fuels. > Birth-rate-over-time changes happen everywhere and have throughout history If you look at a world population chart (logarithmic scale, naturally) [0] it becomes clear something in the last few hundred years caused a deviation from the old trend. Stross might argue the trigger was fossil-fuels, others would argue the trigger was a change in human-capital from medicine/nutrition, perhaps a third group would argue both are inextricably intertwined. [0] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_growth_%28lin-log_scale%29.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_gro...
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stonogo 1y ago

All that tells me is that someone likes normal distribution charts. It describes the concept but I still have no idea what OP is talking about. What started in France in the 1800s and continues in America today?

pram 1y ago
I think he means declining birth rates? They were low during the French Third Republic and didn’t recover until WW2 iirc
deleted 1y ago
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deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
Terr_ 1y ago
I feel the Wikipedia article is pretty clear. It refers to a repeated pattern of changes in births, deaths, technological change, and industrialization. The pattern can be seen in many countries, with various timing-offsets and rates. It has nothing to do with any particular ethnicity. Insofar as "immigration" comes into play, it refers to economic demand for labor as the population-bump people exit the labor pool.
- stonogo 1y ago
  I'm trying to figure out what changes the OP claimed are being driven by this. Birth-rate-over-time changes happen everywhere and have throughout history, but apparently this is now driving major change?
  - Terr_ 1y ago
    I initially read the top-of-thread HN comment as: 1. Stross is trying to tie many events to a change from fossil fuels to solar power, but stronger drivers lie elsewhere. 2. It's better-explained by population dynamics, involving medical technology, mortality and longevity, contraceptives, the shifting balance of workers to retirees, etc. 3. [Charitable-reading effort increases here] These trends involved are old and multi-generational, arguably going back to the industrial revolution. As a casual way to show a very-long-ago datapoint, there are arguments/research about a secularizing France's odd population slump back in the 1700s, which predates the widespread use of fossil fuels. > Birth-rate-over-time changes happen everywhere and have throughout history If you look at a world population chart (logarithmic scale, naturally) [0] it becomes clear something in the last few hundred years caused a deviation from the old trend. Stross might argue the trigger was fossil-fuels, others would argue the trigger was a change in human-capital from medicine/nutrition, perhaps a third group would argue both are inextricably intertwined. [0] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_growth_%28lin-log_scale%29.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_gro...

deleted 1y ago

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