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Well you wouldn't bet all your assets because it would be an illiquid market that could only resolve in your favor in earliest 80 years. If you're really serio
by zurfer 1y ago
Well you wouldn't bet all your assets because it would be an illiquid market that could only resolve in your favor in earliest 80 years.
If you're really serious about it put the money into a prediction market. Poly market has multiple AGI bets.
- yodsanklai 1y agoI see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI". https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2025?tid=1760741264751 https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieve...
- encroach 1y agoHere's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaiagi https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...
- echoangle 1y agoThat’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.
- tim333 1y agoI wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.