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We have a pretty good idea how EV packs decay. This isn’t a new technology. Google searches suggest 1-2% decay per year. So a 15 year old car would have 70-8

by mulmen 1y ago

We have a pretty good idea how EV packs decay. This isn’t a new technology. Google searches suggest 1-2% decay per year. So a 15 year old car would have 70-85% of original range. For pack replacements I don’t know, however it seems unlikely you’d really need to. The battery will almost certainly outlast the car. Range will be degraded but I don’t see a lot of 2005 vehicles doing cross country trips either. Even a degraded EV will be useful in town. Many people only drive a few tens of miles a day. The cost per mile is a simple calculation. It’s a function of your local electricity prices.

BeetleB 1y ago
"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each." This is 11-12 years in. Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me. Also: "This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. " The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?! https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...
- mulmen 1y ago
  > "In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each." What was the remaining range for those replacements? > Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, Tesla makes its own batteries right? When did that start? > but 17% is a scary high number for me. Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?
  - BeetleB 1y ago
    > What was the remaining range for those replacements? Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. I'm thinking of buying another car next year. $15K is my budget for an ICE car - and only if it has all the bells and whistles. Otherwise it's $12K. Spending another $15K on top of that is ridiculous. > Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost? I'd love to know. All I have are anecdotes.
    - mulmen 1y ago
      > Who cares? Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements. > Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? Would you spend $15,000.00 on a $1000.00 car?
      - BeetleB 1y ago
        >>> What was the remaining range for those replacements? >> Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. > Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements. The point is that when comparing dollar for dollar, I can likely get a used ICE for the same price that will work out better for me. If I already had an ICE car and was looking for a second car just for daily commutes, the EV may make sense. But the hassle of having to get a rental for longer trips - I don't know if it's worth it. Also have to consider resale value - will people buy the (already used) EV from me if the battery has significantly reduced range? (BTW, in my social circle, I don't know anyone who's bought a used EV - they all buy new ones out of fear) > Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? I have a list of things I want and need from a car. I can find plenty ICE for $15K that matches my requirements. $25K is the max I'll go for an EV, figuring that I may save $10K over about 8-10 years in gas based on the calculators I've used. I can't find even one EV that matches my requirements for $25K. Each one has some problem - too little room or some other annoying problem (e.g. Ioniq 5 not having rear wipers). I can get great ICE cars for $15K. I cannot get a single used great EV for $25K.

by mulmen 1y ago

BeetleB 1y ago

"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each." This is 11-12 years in. Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me. Also: "This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. " The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?! https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...

mulmen 1y ago
> "In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each." What was the remaining range for those replacements? > Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, Tesla makes its own batteries right? When did that start? > but 17% is a scary high number for me. Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?
- BeetleB 1y ago
  > What was the remaining range for those replacements? Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. I'm thinking of buying another car next year. $15K is my budget for an ICE car - and only if it has all the bells and whistles. Otherwise it's $12K. Spending another $15K on top of that is ridiculous. > Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost? I'd love to know. All I have are anecdotes.
  - mulmen 1y ago
    > Who cares? Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements. > Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? Would you spend $15,000.00 on a $1000.00 car?
    - BeetleB 1y ago
      >>> What was the remaining range for those replacements? >> Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K. > Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements. The point is that when comparing dollar for dollar, I can likely get a used ICE for the same price that will work out better for me. If I already had an ICE car and was looking for a second car just for daily commutes, the EV may make sense. But the hassle of having to get a rental for longer trips - I don't know if it's worth it. Also have to consider resale value - will people buy the (already used) EV from me if the battery has significantly reduced range? (BTW, in my social circle, I don't know anyone who's bought a used EV - they all buy new ones out of fear) > Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? I have a list of things I want and need from a car. I can find plenty ICE for $15K that matches my requirements. $25K is the max I'll go for an EV, figuring that I may save $10K over about 8-10 years in gas based on the calculators I've used. I can't find even one EV that matches my requirements for $25K. Each one has some problem - too little room or some other annoying problem (e.g. Ioniq 5 not having rear wipers). I can get great ICE cars for $15K. I cannot get a single used great EV for $25K.