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Yes, this rally seems overextended. But investor sentiment - if anything - has already swung to very negative, which isn't ideal if you want it to crash. Bubbl

Yes, this rally seems overextended. But investor sentiment - if anything - has already swung to very negative, which isn't ideal if you want it to crash. Bubbles don't pop without indiscriminate euphoria (Private markets are a different story, but VCs are fked anyways). If anything, the prices have reflected less than 20% of Capex projections, so the market clearly thinks OpenAI / Stargate / FAANG's capex plans are BS. p.s. if everyone thinks it's a bubble, it generally rallies even more..

vonneumannstan 1y ago
>If anything, the prices have reflected less than 20% of Capex projections, so the market clearly thinks OpenAI / Stargate / FAANG's capex plans are BS. I'd say if anything the market is massively underestimating the scale of their capex plans. These things are using as much electricity as small cities. They are well past breaking ground, the buildings are going up as we speak. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-and-oracle-to-deploy-450000-gb200-gpus-at-stargate-abilene-data-center/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-and-oracle... https://x.com/sama/status/1947640330318156074/photo/1 https://x.com/sama/status/1947640330318156074/photo/1 There are dozens of these planned.
- nextworddev 1y ago
  Think we said the same thing
- andoando 1y ago
  Oh jesus. I think AI is useful, but I figure 95%+ of it used on complete nonsense.
- lazide 1y ago
  Same thing happened with the dot-com boom and bust, except with fiber (later called dark fiber) and datacenters. A lot of people lost a lot of money. Post bankruptcy, it also fueled the later tech booms, as now there was a ton of dark fiber waiting to be used at rock bottom prices, and underutilized datacenters and hardware. Google was a major beneficiary.
  - nextworddev 1y ago
    think you are mis-quoting some of the poorly written vendor financing articles / linkedin posts. the market hasn't priced in Sam Altman's Capex projections, so it's probably akin to 1998 or 1999
    - lazide 1y ago
      nope, just forecasting based on lived experience.

vonneumannstan 1y ago

>If anything, the prices have reflected less than 20% of Capex projections, so the market clearly thinks OpenAI / Stargate / FAANG's capex plans are BS. I'd say if anything the market is massively underestimating the scale of their capex plans. These things are using as much electricity as small cities. They are well past breaking ground, the buildings are going up as we speak. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-and-oracle-to-deploy-450000-gb200-gpus-at-stargate-abilene-data-center/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-and-oracle... https://x.com/sama/status/1947640330318156074/photo/1 https://x.com/sama/status/1947640330318156074/photo/1 There are dozens of these planned.

nextworddev 1y ago
Think we said the same thing
andoando 1y ago
Oh jesus. I think AI is useful, but I figure 95%+ of it used on complete nonsense.
lazide 1y ago
Same thing happened with the dot-com boom and bust, except with fiber (later called dark fiber) and datacenters. A lot of people lost a lot of money. Post bankruptcy, it also fueled the later tech booms, as now there was a ton of dark fiber waiting to be used at rock bottom prices, and underutilized datacenters and hardware. Google was a major beneficiary.
- nextworddev 1y ago
  think you are mis-quoting some of the poorly written vendor financing articles / linkedin posts. the market hasn't priced in Sam Altman's Capex projections, so it's probably akin to 1998 or 1999
  - lazide 1y ago
    nope, just forecasting based on lived experience.