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Cargo cult as a metaphor doesn't work here. That's for when the cargo culters don't understand what is going on, and attempt to imitate the actions without unde
by jerf 1y ago
Cargo cult as a metaphor doesn't work here. That's for when the cargo culters don't understand what is going on, and attempt to imitate the actions without understanding or accuracy. AI investors understand what is going on and understand that this may be a bubble and they may lose their investment. We may disagree with them about the probabilities of such an outcome, perhaps even quite substantially, but that's not the same thing as thinking that if I just write some number-looking-squiggles on a piece of paper and slide it under the door of a building that looks like it has computers on it I will have a pool and a lambo when I get home. That's what "cargo cult" investing would look like.
The AI investors know what they are doing, by which I mean, if this is every bit the bubble some of us think it is and it pops as viciously as it possibly can and these investors lose everything from top to bottom, if they tried to say "I didn't know that could happen!" I simply wouldn't believe them and neither would anyone else. Of course they know it's possible. They may not believe it is likely, but they are 100% operating from a position of knowledge and understanding and taking actions that have a completely reasonable through-line to successfully achieving their goals. Indeed I'm sure some people have sufficiently cashed out of their positions or diversified them such that they have already completely succeeded; worries about the bubble are worries about a sector and a broad range of people but some individuals can and will come out of this successfully even if it completely detonates in the future. If nothing else the people simply drawing salaries against the bubble, even completely normal non-inflated ones, can be called net winners.
- leptons 1y agoThe original "cargo culters" had nothing to lose, so your comment falls apart pretty quickly.
- jerf 1y agoMy comment about how "cargo culting" is not an appropriate metaphor "falls apart" because you named another way in which the metaphor is not appropriate? This is some bold new definition of "falls apart" with which I am not familiar.
- alphazard 1y agoIronically, the author of TFA is playing the part of the cargo cult. They don't actually understand the cargo cult metaphor, but since it is a popular metaphor, they reference it in naive imitation hoping that people engage with their content.
- NotBillBellaC 1y agoand we did! So it works?